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疾病预防控制中心编制标准改革的政策效果评估——基于中断时间序列分析

Evaluation of the policy effectiveness of the staffing standardization reform of the centers for disease control and prevention:based on interrupt time series analysis

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【作者】 范军祖平陆晔胡逸欢金宇雅宗莲高围溦

【Author】 Fan Jun;Zu Ping;Lu Ye;Hu Yihuan;Jin Yuya;Zong Lian;Gao Weiwei;Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention;

【通讯作者】 高围溦;

【机构】 上海市疾病预防控制中心上海市浦东新区浦南医院上海市宝山区疾病预防控制中心(上海市宝山区卫生监督所)上海市中医文献馆

【摘要】 目的 评估《关于印发疾病预防控制中心机构编制标准指导意见的通知》(以下简称《指导意见》)和《关于印发公共卫生防控救治能力建设方案的通知》(以下简称《建设方案》)对全国疾病预防控制(以下简称疾控)中心人员编制及结构的影响,为后续政策完善提供实证依据。方法 收集2005—2023年全国疾控中心人员数据,以政策发布时间为节点,采用双断点中断时间序列分析法,比较各项指标变化趋势。结果 《指导意见》实施前,编制配备比、专业技术人员占比、卫生技术人员占比分别年均下降1.87%、0.35%、0.44%(P<0.05)。《指导意见》实施后,专业技术人员与卫生技术人员占比分别年均升高0.30%和0.14%(P<0.05)。《指导意见》和《建设方案》协同实施阶段,编制配备比转为上升趋势,年均增幅为13.5%(P<0.05)。结论 两项政策对疾控体系建设均产生积极影响,未来应通过优化路径促进疾控体系的发展。

【Abstract】 Objectve To evaluate the impact of the Notice on Issuing the Guiding Opinions on the staffing Standards of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(2014) and the Notice on Issuing the Public Health Prevention and Control Treatment Capacity Building Plan(2020) on the staffing and structure of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC) nationwide.Methods Collecting the corresponding annual data from 2003 to 2023,taking the release time of the policy as the node,using the double breakpoint interruption time series method to divide it into three stages,and comparing the changes of various indicators.Results Before the implementation of the policy in 2014,the staffing ratio decreased by 1.87%,and the proportion of professional and health technical personnel decreased by 0.35% and 0.44%respectively. After the implementation of the policy in 2014, the proportion of professional and health technical personnel increased by 1.16% and 1.38% respectively. From 2014 to 2019, it continued to increase by 2.97% and0.14%,respectively. After the implementation of the construction plan in 2020,the staffing ratio increased by 0.29%,with statistically significant differences(P<0.05).Conclusion Both policies have had a positive impact on the construction of the disease control system, promoting optimization of personnel structure and improvement of staffing configuration.

  • 【文献出处】 中国公共卫生管理 ,Chinese Journal of Public Health Management , 编辑部邮箱 ,2025年06期
  • 【分类号】R197.21
  • 【下载频次】19
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