【摘要】 榴莲Durio zibethinus Murr.是具有重要经济价值的热带果树。为了研究榴莲在我国的适生区分布及其主要限制环境因子，为榴莲试种与扩种提供参考，利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)对我国榴莲潜在适生区进行预测，通过分布点位去自相关、气候因子筛选优化模型，使用刀切法及环境变量响应曲线对影响榴莲分布的气候因子进行评估，确定其适生区。结果表明，在我国影响榴莲分布的主要气候因子为温度季节性变动系数，贡献率高达47.67%;其次为年降水，贡献率为19.44%;影响最小的环境变量为最热季降水量，贡献率仅为3.68%。我国99.54%地区均不适宜种植榴莲；0.40%地区低度适合榴莲生长，主要分布在海南岛中部地区、福建省沿海一带、台湾岛东面沿海地区，累计面积3.8万km~2;0.06%地区中度适合榴莲生长，主要分布在海南岛南部地区的三亚市、陵水县、乐东县、保亭县，累计面积0.5万km~2;仅0.001%地区高度适合榴莲生长，主要分布在海南部分岛屿，面积仅0.01万km~2。更多还原

【Abstract】 Durio zibethinus Murr. is an economically important tropical fruit. In order to study the suitable distribution areas of durian in China and its main limiting environmental factors, so as to provide theoretical basis for the trial and expansion of durian, MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential suitable survival areas of durian in China, and optimize the model by removing auto-correlation of distribution points and screening climatic factors, evaluate the climatic factors affecting the distribution of durian by means of the knife-cut method and the response curve of environmental variables, hence, the suitable area was determined. The results showed that the main climatic factor affecting durian distribution in China was the seasonal variation coefficient of temperature, which contributed 47.67%, followed by the annual precipitation, which contributed 19.44%, with the least contribution of precipitation in the hottest season of only 3.68%. Durian was not suitable for planting in 99.54% of the areas of China. 0.40% of the areas in China were lowly suitable for durian growth, mainly distributed in the central area of Hainan Island, the coastal area of Fujian Province and the eastern coastal area of Taiwan Island, with a total area of 38,000 km~2. 0.06% of the areas in China was moderately suitable for durian growth, mainly distributed in Sanya, Lingshui, Ledong and Baoting counties of Hainan, with a total area of 5,000 km~2. Only 0.001% of the areas in China was highly suitable for durian growth, mainly distributed in some islands of Hainan, with a total area of only 100 km~2.更多还原