【摘要】 水环境受到气候变化的极大影响，在干旱半干旱地区尤为明显，对其研究受到广泛关注。该研究以中国干旱半干旱地区典型流域——乌梁素海流域为例，通过Mann-Kendall趋势检验，探究2000-2023年流域气候变化对乌梁素海水质的影响。结果表明：近24年，水质因子（溶解氧、化学需氧量、总氮和总磷）和气候因子（气温和降水）中，化学需氧量、总氮和总磷呈显著下降趋势（p<0.1）,DO呈显著上升趋势（p<0.01）；年平均气温呈显著上升趋势（p<0.05），年降水量和最大月降水量呈下降趋势，但均不显著。相关分析和广义加性模型（GAM）分析表明，气温和降水变化对湖泊水质变量的影响不同。年平均温度的升高对化学需氧量有显著的正影响（p<0.05），解释了37.1%的变化偏差。同时，年最高气温升高对总磷浓度有显著的正影响（p<0.1），解释了28.1%的变异偏差。年降水量对GAM水质的预测分别占总方差的29.8%（总氮）和91.7%（总磷）。伴随着降水的产生，大量的磷元素被径流带入湖中，总磷入湖的侵蚀作用大于稀释作用，使总磷浓度显著升高。该研究基于干旱半干旱地区长期气候和水质资料数据，探讨了水质变化对气候变化的响应，为全球气候变化环境下，干旱半干旱区湖泊预测预警提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The hydrological cycle has been greatly impacted by climate change, and the government and scientific community have both become concerned with how climate change affects lake water quality. This study investigated the impacts of climate change on water quality of Ulansuhai Lake in China from 2000 to 2023. Mann-Kendall trend test of water quality variables(dissolved oxygen, chemical oxygen demand, total nitrogen and total phosphorus) and climate factors(air temperature and precipitation) showed that in the past 24 years, COD, TN and TP have a significant downward trend(p<0.1), and DO have a significant upward trend(p<0.01). The annual average temperature has a significant upward trend(p<0.05), while the annual precipitation and the maximum monthly precipitation have a downward trend but were not significant. The correlation and generalized additive model(GAM) analyses indicated that the temperature and precipitation changes differently affected the water quality variables of the lake. The increase of annual mean temperature has a significant positive(p<0.05) effect on COD concentration, and explained 37.1% deviation of variations. Meanwhile, the annual maximum temperature increase had a significant positive(p<0.1) effect on TP concentration and explained 28.1% of the variation deviation. Additionally,the annual precipitation predicted the water quality in GAM, explaining 29.8%(TN) and 91.7%(TP) of the total variances,respectively. A significant amount of TP was carried into the lake by the runoff as a consequence of rising precipitation. The inflow of TP into the lake has more erosion effect than dilution effect, which significantly raises the concentration of TP.Based on long-term climate and water quality data, this study explored the response of water quality change to climate change, which can provide theoretical basis for integrated lake management in arid and semi-arid regions under the global climate change environment.更多还原