【摘要】 受新能源发电不确定性的影响，新型电力系统平衡风险随新能源渗透率增加而增大。为此，本文基于大电网电力平衡实践，将新能源发电统计规律与大电网电力平衡原理相结合，对新型电力系统电力平衡风险防控基本原理进行了系统研究。首先，从中长期、日前两个平衡维度对新能源参与平衡电力进行统计学建模，构建“新能源标准风险/电力转换函数”将平衡风险量化后引入平衡约束方程，推导了含平衡风险防控要求的新型平衡方程，并据此阐释新型电力系统平衡风险防控基本原理；然后，将新型平衡方程代入工程实践场景，论述了平衡风险防控标准与新能源消纳空间“此消彼长”的负相关关系，提出了新型电力系统电力平衡工作方法；最后，通过算例进一步例证和阐释了本文所提原理及方法的科学性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Due to the unreliability of new energy’s power output, power balancing risk of New Power System is growing with the increasing of new energy’s penetration. Based on practices of large power system’s operation and balancing, new energy’s generation statistical features and power system’s basic balancing principles are mathematically combined in this paper, and risk prevention and control mechanisms of New Power System’s power balance are systematically researched.Firstly, statistical models of new energy’s generations are constructed separately to 2 power balancing events-medium & long term power balancing and day-ahead power balancing. A ‘Standard Transformation Function’(STF) is proposed to mathematically transfer ‘power balancing risk’ to ‘power value counted in power balancing’. With STF new type power balancing equations are deducted including power balancing risks, based on which risk prevention and control mechanisms of New Power System’s power balancing are explained. Secondly, the new type power balancing equations are brought into real power balancing practising models to illustrate the relationship between ‘power balancing risk’ and ‘new energy consumption’ within New Power System circumstances. Lastly, all the theoretical analysis are verified with real power system operation data and models of some real power grid.更多还原