【摘要】 南高加索地区位于欧亚大陆的十字路口，不仅是俄罗斯、美欧、土耳其、以色列和伊朗五方力量交汇、文明板块碰撞、安全冲突频发的“地缘破碎带”,也是连接欧亚的必经陆桥，俄乌冲突的升级更突出了这一地区在能源通道和贸易捷径方面的重要性。1994年以来纳卡地区长期处于非战非和状态，近三十年间，阿塞拜疆与亚美尼亚之间实力失衡、土耳其持续支持阿塞拜疆、国际调解长期失灵，以及俄罗斯与阿土在地区利益上趋同，为冻结的冲突再次爆发创造了条件。第二次纳卡冲突后阿、土的地区影响力显著提升，促使亚美尼亚加速西向并与俄罗斯逐渐疏离。土耳其地位的上升以及以色列、阿塞拜疆、美国的三边合作，进一步加剧了伊朗的边缘化趋势和安全压力。2020年三边停火协议曾短暂强化了俄罗斯在南高加索的安全控制与影响力，然而俄乌冲突的爆发改变了这一走向，并为阿塞拜疆在2023年彻底收复纳卡提供了机会。在俄乌冲突持续的背景下，停火协议中提及的连接阿塞拜疆本土与纳希切万的运输走廊成为地区秩序重构的核心变量。该通道因其地缘政治与经济意义牵动阿、亚、土、俄、伊多方利益，围绕其主权属性的分歧使项目长期陷入僵局。2025年8月，在斡旋阿亚和平的背景下，美国推动获得该通道的独家开发权，成为塑造地区新秩序的新增力量，“特朗普走廊”也为南高加索的未来带来新的机遇与不确定性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The South Caucasus region, located at the crossroads of Eurasia, is not only a “geopolitical fracture zone” where Russia, the U.S., Europe, Türkiye, Israel, and Iran converge, civilizations collide, and security conflicts are frequent, but also a vital land bridge connecting Europe and Asia. The escalation of Russia-Ukraine conflict has further highlighted the region’s importance as an energy corridor and trade route. Since1994, the Nagorno-Karabakh region has been in a state of neither war nor peace. For nearly three decades, the power imbalance between Azerbaijan and Armenia,Türkiye’s continued support for Azerbaijan, the long-standing failure of international mediation, and the convergence of regional interests between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye have created conditions for the resurgence of the frozen conflict. Following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the regional influence of Azerbaijan and Türkiye has significantly increased, prompting Armenia to accelerate its westward shift and gradually distance itself from Russia. Türkiye’s rising status and the trilateral cooperation between Israel, Azerbaijan, and the United States have further exacerbated Iran’ s marginalization and security pressures. The 2020 trilateral ceasefire agreement briefly strengthened Russia’s security control and influence in the South Caucasus. However, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict changed this trajectory and provided Azerbaijan with an opportunity to fully retake Nagorno-Karabakh by 2023. Against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the transport corridor connecting mainland Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan, mentioned in the ceasefire agreement, has become a key variable in reshaping the regional order. Due to its geopolitical and economic significance, the corridor has drawn the interests of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Türkiye, Russia, and Iran. Disagreements over its sovereignty have long stalled the project. In August 2025, while brokering peace between Armenia and Armenia, the United States pushed for exclusive development rights for the corridor, becoming a new force in shaping the new regional order. The “Trump Corridor” has also brought new opportunities and uncertainties to the future of the South Caucasus.更多还原