【摘要】 季风系统演变规律及其驱动机制是重要的前沿科学问题。地质历史时期为解析季风多尺度变率的关键控制因子提供了重要参考时段。前人主要基于古气候重建资料，围绕古季风多尺度变化进行了回顾和整理。近年来，随着地球系统模式的发展与应用，在古季风多尺度变化的时空特征和成因机制方面取得了重要进展，但对此还缺乏系统梳理和总结。为此，本文聚焦近几年基于古气候数值模拟的研究成果，针对晚第四纪以来轨道—千年—百年—年代际时间尺度全球季风变化的热点问题和最新进展进行系统梳理，尤其是针对中国的10万年周期问题、千—百年尺度季风气候突变问题和季风年代际变化与机制问题。在此基础上，本文提出了未来亟需加强的研究工作，包括针对跨时间尺度相互作用过程、季风系统突变的临界点问题及地球系统模拟、古气候同化和机器学习方法的发展与应用等方面。这对于深入理解全球季风多尺度变化规律、提高未来季风变化的预估能力具有理论和现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of monsoon systems are extensively studied. Geological records provide key insights into the dominant factors controlling multiscale monsoon variability. Previous studies have primarily reviewed paleomonsoon variations based on paleoclimate reconstructions. In recent years, the spatiotemporal characteristics and underlying mechanisms of multiscale paleomonsoon changes have been elucidated in detail owing to advances in Earth system modeling. However, systematic modeling studies on paleomonsoon multitimescale variability are lacking. Therefore, recent paleoclimate modeling studies are reviewed herein, and their key findings and advances in global monsoon variability across orbital, millennial, centennial, and decadal timescales since the late Quaternary are reported. Furthermore, future research priorities, including investigations into cross-timescale interactions, tipping points in monsoon systems, and the development and application of Earth system models, paleoclimate data assimilation, and machine learning methods, are highlighted. These efforts will facilitate a better understanding of global monsoon multiscale variability and improve the projections of future monsoon changes.更多还原