【摘要】 百年未有之大变局正加速演进，世界进入新的动荡变革期。随着特朗普执政2.0的开启，关于当前美国内政外交政策的预测和探讨成为社会各界关注的焦点。其中，特朗普在这一任期针对与中国强关联的领域和地区会采取怎样的政策以及这一系列政策的出台和实施会对中国周边政治、经济和安全环境造成怎样的影响是重点关注问题。无疑，特朗普第二任期以来，在内政外交领域对前任拜登政府的政策进行了广泛而重大的调整，对国际秩序形成了快速和声势浩大的冲击。特朗普执政2.0的外交政策中最具挑战性的组成部分将是他的政府在两个重要拉力之间寻求平衡——提高进口关税以使国内受益，展示作为海外经济伙伴和安全提供者的实力。中国周边国家普遍认为特朗普执政2.0必然对本国的发展与安全、内政与外交产生重大影响，甚至制造新的危机。更多还原

【Abstract】 The world is undergoing accelerated changes unseen in a century, entering a new period of turbulence and transformation. With the advent of Trump 2.0 era, predictions and discussions regarding his domestic and foreign policies have become a focal point of attention. A particular focus is placed on what policies Trump may adopt in China’s periphery during this term, as well as how the introduction and implementation of these policies might impact the security environment surrounding China. Undoubtedly, since the second term of Trump, there have been broad and significant adjustments to the domestic and foreign policies of the previous Biden administration, creating a rapid and sweeping impact on the international order. One of the most challenging aspects of foreign policy during Trump 2.0 era will be the administration’s effort to strike a balance between two major forces: raising import tariffs to benefit the domestic economy and projecting strength as an economic partner and security provider abroad. China’s neighbouring countries generally believe that Trump 2.0 era will inevitably have a profound impact on their own development and security, as well as on their domestic and foreign affairs, potentially even triggering new crises.更多还原