【摘要】 南水北调中线工程水源区（汉江上游）和受水区（华北北部）存在多个时间尺度的同旱现象，迫切需要了解其共同的气候影响因子。利用1700—2023年汉江上游和华北北部的旱涝等级序列，以及太阳黑子序列，主要探讨了11 a、30 a和50 a时间尺度上，太阳黑子与两地旱涝的相关性。结果表明，汉江上游和华北北部旱涝与太阳黑子的相关关系随时间呈阶段性变化。在太阳黑子数值较高时期，汉江上游和华北北部极端干旱事件的发生频次往往偏多。汉江上游和华北北部旱涝与太阳黑子相关关系的位相变化对两地之间旱涝对应关系的转变有很大影响，当汉江上游和华北北部旱涝与太阳黑子基本同/逆向变化时，两地旱涝以正/负相关为主。汉江上游和华北北部旱涝与太阳黑子均存在2～4 a的年际周期，11～12 a的年代际周期，以及20～30 a和50 a的多年代际周期。在多个时间尺度上，太阳黑子变化均可能影响两地的旱涝变化。此外，当太阳黑子明显突变上升，两地均更趋向偏旱。更多还原

【Abstract】 The co-occurrence of droughts at multiple time scales in the water source area(Upper Hanjiang River, UH) and receiving area(northern North China, NNC) of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion project highlights the need to identify common climatic drivers for these concurrent phenomena. Using reconstructed drought/flood grade data and sunspot series from 1700 to 2023, this study analyzed the correlations of droughts/floods in the Upper Hanjiang River and northern North China with sunspots at 11-, 30-and 50-year scales. The results show that the correlation between sunspots and droughts/floods in these two areas varied in stages over time. During high sunspot periods, the frequency of extreme drought events increased in both areas. The phase change of the correlation between sunspots and droughts/floods in the Upper Hanjiang River and northern North China significantly influenced the shift in the drought-flood correspondence between the two areas. When droughts/floods in the Upper Hanjiang River and northern North China align with or oppose sunspot variations, the droughts/floods in the two areas are predominantly positively or negatively correlated. Both droughts/floods in the Upper Hanjiang River and northern North China as well as sunspots share inter-annual cycles of about 2-4 years, inter-decadal cycles of about 11-12 years, and multi-decadal cycles of about 20-30 years and 50 years. Sunspot variations may influence the droughts and floods in these two areas across multiple time scales. Additionally, when sunspots increase significantly and abruptly, the Upper Hanjiang River and northern North China tend to be more drought-prone.更多还原