【摘要】 摸清中国少子—老龄化类型转变和区域差异对总结中国式现代化的历史经验具有重要意义，亦是以积极应对少子化、老龄化为重点完善人口发展战略的基础性工作。本文在将少子化和老龄化发展阶段进行交互而划分出少子—老龄化类型的基础上，利用2000—2020年人口普查数据，刻画中国少子—老龄化类型的多尺度演变特征和动态转型路径以及典型区域模式。研究发现：(1)在时序特征上，2000—2020年间大部分区域基本遵循着从多子—未老龄化出发，到少子—轻度老龄化为主再到少子—中度老龄化、少子—轻度老龄化和多子—轻度老龄化平分秋色的转变历程，但少子—老龄化类型的转变并非简单的线性替代过程，而是形成具有时空压缩特征的复合转型路径；(2)在空间格局演变上，中国少子—老龄化类型转变的空间梯度差异明显，呈由沿海向内陆、由东向西的“雁阵式”演进格局：东北、江浙沪京津走在前列，其他东部沿海和大部分中西部省份陆续跟随，西北和西南少数民族聚居地区尚未开始转变；(3)以县级尺度为评价单元，结合少子—老龄化类型转变历程和形成逻辑，可至少凝练出东北深度转型区、长三角—京津极低生育区、中原传统老化区、珠三角流动调节区、华南传统文化缓冲区及西南和西北少数民族聚居过渡区6种典型区域。更多还原

【Abstract】 Understanding the transformation process and regional differences of China’s low fertility-aging types is of great importance for summarizing the historical experience of modernization with Chinese characteristics, and it is also a foundational task for improving population development strategies with a focus on addressing low fertility and aging. This paper constructs a joint framework of low fertility and aging to define the types of low fertilityaging, and uses population census data from 2000 to 2020 to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of China’s low fertility-aging types at multiple spatial scales. It also interprets the evolution characteristics and formation logic of typical regional low fertilityaging types. The study finds that:(1) In terms of temporal characteristics, most regions have experienced a transformation in low fertility-aging types over the past two decades, generally following a trajectory from multiple children-not aging, to predominantly low fertility-mild aging, and then to a balanced distribution of low fertility-moderate aging, low fertility-mild aging, and multiple children-mild aging. As the spatial scale becomes more detailed, the types and transformation paths of low fertility-aging tend to become more diverse and dispersed.(2) The spatial pattern of low fertility-aging type transformation exhibits a characteristic of expanding from points to areas: regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Beijing, and Northeast China are at the forefront of the transformation, followed by other eastern coastal and most central and western provincial-level areas, but most ethnic groups-inhabited areas in northwest and southwest China have not yet begun to transform. At the same time, the Central China Plains and southeast regions show a characteristic of asynchronous transformation in low fertility and aging.(3) Taking the county level as the evaluation unit, and based on local perspectives, the study identifies six typical regional patterns at the national level, including the Northeast, the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin, the Pearl River Delta, the Southeast, the Central China Plains, and the ethnic groups-inhabited areas in the northwest and southwest, by analyzing the commonalities and differences in the transformation process and main driving factors of low fertility-aging types. The conclusions not only provide theoretical references and practical guidance for various regions to deeply optimize national population strategies and improve fertility support policies in a location-specific manner, but also contribute new perspectives and insights to the study of population transformation, promoting the establishment of a community with a shared future for humanity in actively addressing low fertility and aging in developing countries.更多还原