【摘要】 探究京津冀城市群生境质量与人类活动强度时空分异性对该地区开展生态建设与土地资源可持续发展具有重大意义。以京津冀城市群为例，运用In VEST模型对2000～2020年内生境质量进行评估，构建人类活动强度指标，利用双变量空间自相关分析人类活动强度与生境质量的空间相关性；结合地理探测器验证人类活动强度的主导效应，最后运用PLUS模型预测2030年研究内区三种情景下的土地利用变化及生境质量规律。结果表明：2000～2020年京津冀城市群土地利用变化剧烈，人类活动强度指数处于较低等级并稳定上升；西部、北部生境质量较高，中心城区以低生境为主，人类活动强度与生境质量具有显著空间负相关性。地理探测器结果表明人类活动强度因子与自然因子的交互作用对京津冀城市群生境质量解释力日趋增强，2030年人类活动优先情景下生境质量均值最低，自然发展优先和生态保护优先情境中生境质量有所提高。研究结果对京津冀城市群生境保护及实现区域高质量一体化发展具有重要意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Exploring spatio-temporal differentiation of habitat quality and human activity intensity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is of great significance for ecological construction and sustainable land resource development in the region. Taking the BeijingTianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as an example, the InVEST model is used to assess habitat quality from 2000 to 2020. Human activity intensity indicators are constructed, and bivariate spatial autocorrelation is utilized to analyze the spatial correlation between human activity intensity and habitat quality. At the same time, geodetectors are combined to verify the dominant effect of human activity intensity, and finally, a PLUS model is used to predict the habitat quality patterns in the study area under three scenarios for 2030. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, land use changes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration were drastic, with the human activity intensity index at a relatively low level and steadily rising. The western and northern regions had higher habitat quality, while the central urban area was mainly characterized by low habitat quality. There was a significant spatial negative correlation between human activity intensity and habitat quality. The results of geodetectors indicate that the interaction between human activity intensity factors and natural factors increasingly enhanced the explanatory power for habitat quality in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. In the human activity priority scenario for 2030, the average habitat quality is the lowest, while habitat quality improves in the natural development priority and ecological protection priority scenarios. The research results are of great significance for habitat protection in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration and achieving high-quality integrated regional development.更多还原