【摘要】 智慧城市建设在推动城市数字化转型的同时，也对城市空间形态形成冲击。深入理解其对城市多中心化的影响，对制定城市空间规划政策至关重要。论文基于2003—2019年中国269个地级市的面板数据集，采用多周期和空间双重差分模型探究智慧城市试点政策对城市多中心化的直接影响和溢出效应，并进一步分析了政策溢出的距离衰减边界、城市异质性和调节效应。研究发现：(1)智慧城市建设对城市的多中心发展进程存在抑制作用；(2)在地理矩阵、经济矩阵、经济地理嵌套矩阵三种不同空间权重矩阵下，智慧城市建设对城市多中心化均表现出负向空间溢出效应，且地理矩阵下影响最为显著；(3)智慧城市建设的边际溢出效应呈现试点城市—省域—城市群近距离衰减的圈层结构，且随距离增加表现出先增强后减弱的变化趋势，在200～400 km距离带最为突出，超过600 km则不再显著；(4)异质性分析发现，从经济地带、城市等级和主导产业划分来看，政策溢出效应在西部地区城市、较高等级城市与第三产业主导城市中正向显著；(5)市场分割水平和政府治理水平能够在智慧城市建设与城市多中心化之间发挥有效调节作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 While advancing urban digital transformation, smart city development exerts profound influences on the spatial configuration of cities. A nuanced understanding of its impacts on urban polycentric development is critical for formulating evidence-based urban spatial planning policies in the context of rapid digitalization. This study used a panel dataset of 269 prefecture-level cities in China covering the period 2003-2019 and employed multi-period spatial difference-in-differences(DID) models to systematically examine the direct effects and spillover impacts of national smart city pilot policies on urban polycentricity. The research further delved into the distance-decay thresholds of spillovers, city heterogeneity in policy responses, and the moderating roles of institutional factors in shaping these relationships. Key findings include: 1) Smart city construction had an inhibitory effect on the process of urban polycentric development. 2) Across three distinct spatial weight matrices—geographic proximity, economic similarity, and nested economic-geographic frameworks—smart city construction demonstrated negative spatial spillovers on neighboring cities’ polycentric development. The geographic proximity matrix yields the most pronounced negative effects, indicating that geographic distance remains a key factor influencing resource flows between cities and the transmission of policy effects. 3) The spatial spillover effects of smart city construction exhibited characteristics of attenuation as geographic distance increased and spatial scale expanded, presenting a circular hierarchy of close-distance decay of pilot citiesprovincial regions-urban agglomerations. The effects exhibited a trend of first strengthening and then weakening with increasing distance—indirect spillover effects were most pronounced in the 200-400 km distance range, reaching their peak at 400 km, and became insignificant beyond 600 km. This trend reflects the nonlinear transmission patterns of policy effects across different geographic distances and spatial scales. 4) Heterogeneity analysis revealed that, in terms of the division of economic zones, urban hierarchy, and dominant industry, the policy spillover effect was positively significant in cities in the western region, higher-level cities, and cities dominated by the tertiary industry. 5) Market integration levels and governmental governance efficiency played pivotal moderating roles. Lower market segmentation and higher governance capacity amplified the positive effects of smart city policies on polycentric development by facilitating resource flows and coordinated planning, while excessive administrative barriers weakened these impacts. The study underscored the need for spatially differentiated smart city development strategies that account for regional economic landscapes, urban hierarchies, and institutional contexts. Policymakers should adopt adaptive spatial planning approaches—such as promoting cross-city digital collaboration in urban agglomerations and enhancing governance coordination—to leverage smart city investments for optimizing urban internal structures and fostering balanced regional development in China’s new-type urbanization process.更多还原