【摘要】 平原农区乡村社区具有独特的发育环境和发展特征，揭示其发生机理、辨识发展类型有利于乡村社区建设精准施策。论文基于江汉平原典型县市乡村社区问卷调查与实地访谈数据，采用K-means聚类算法及手肘分析方法，以流动性解读外部作用力、恢复力解译内部支撑力，以流动性—恢复力之平衡解析乡村社区变化机理，据此划分乡村社区类型、透视不同发展前景。结果表明：(1) 2022年案例地区流动性均值为0.0520，土地流动是主导维度，贡献率达44.80%，建设用地外流是主要风险，建设用地流出面积和房屋空置率等发挥关键作用；空间分布呈非均衡特征，乡村经济条件的极高与极低均加强要素外流，中、高流动性乡村社区位于近交通干线、镇域中心处，低流动性乡村社区分布零散。(2)同期恢复力均值为0.1777，网络化是主导维度，贡献率达40.40%，社会网络化是基础支撑，城乡公共服务均等化发挥关键作用；多类资源受外部环境驱动随交通干线不断流失，低、中恢复力乡村社区在近主要道路处聚集，高恢复力乡村社区呈随机性分布。(3)江汉平原乡村社区类型可分为坚韧Ⅱ型、中庸型、脆弱Ⅰ型，占比分别为19.74%、21.05%、59.21%。脆弱Ⅰ型是案例地主流类型，多数乡村社区发展前景不容乐观。结合分化机理与平衡特征，提出巩固提升型、调控优化型、重点发展型、整治改善型、定点帮扶型等发展路径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rural communities in plain agricultural areas have unique developmental environments and characteristics. This study investigated the mechanisms underlying their formations and identified their development types, offering insights for targeted policy implementation in rural community construction. Based on questionnaire surveys and on-site interviews with rural residents in typical counties and cities of the Jianghan Plain, this study used the K-means clustering algorithm and elbow analysis method, and employed mobility to interpret exogenous forces and resilience to evaluate internal supports. It analyzed the development characteristics and classified the development types of rural communities through mobility and resilience, highlighting their development prospects. The research found that: 1) During the study period, the average mobility value in the case area was 0.0520, with land mobility contributing 44.80%, as the dominant dimension. The outflow of building land was identified as the primary risk, with building land outflow areas and housing vacancy rates playing critical roles.Mobility was spatially uneven: rural communities with very high and very low economic development levels exhibited significant factor outflows; Medium and high-mobility rural communities were concentrated near transport arteries and town centers, while low-mobility rural communities were scattered. 2) The average resilience value was 0.1777, with networking contributing 40.40%, as the dominant dimension. Social networking emerged as a basic support, with the equalization of public services between urban and rural areas being pivotal. External environmental influences caused resource loss along transport arteries; low and medium-resilience rural communities were clustered near major roads, whereas high-resilience rural communities were randomly distributed. 3)Rural communities in the Jianghan Plain could be classified into resilient type II, moderate type, and vulnerable type I, accounting for 19.74%, 21.05%, and 59.21%, respectively. Vulnerable type I is the dominant type. The development prospects of most rural communities in the case areas were not promising. Rural communities encompassed five development paths: consolidation and upgrading, regulation and optimization, key development, remediation and improvement, and targeted assistance.更多还原