【摘要】 政策效果测量以反映政策整体目标实现程度为中心，因此文章以社区居家养老服务政策效果评估为起点，在政策目标达成评估理论模型指导下，建立结合事实与价值的政策效果测量指标体系，评估政策效果并探寻其影响因素。采用多维度评估方法，包括效益性、效率性、充分性、经济性、公平性、回应性、适当性、稳定性8个主维度。通过问卷调查和专家访谈，收集甘肃、陕西两地数据，运用层次分析法确定指标权重，通过模糊综合评价法量化评估政策效果。结果显示，政策效果整体较好，尤其在充分性和效益性方面，但在回应性和公平性方面表现较差，存在城乡、区域差异。采用霍恩—米特模型进一步分析政策效果影响因素，发现政策标准与目的、资源、执行与干预、环境四大因素对政策效果有显著影响。研究表明，政策执行与干预是政策效果的核心影响因素，而政策标准与目的起到“指挥棒”作用。建议未来制定政策时考虑公平性和回应性，增强政策的城乡、地域公平性，提升对老年人需求的回应性与互动水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 The assessment of policy effectiveness has focused on measuring the extent to which the overall policy goals have been achieved. Guided by the theoretical model of policy goal achievement evaluation, this paper establishes an index system that integrates both factual data and value-based criteria to evaluate policy effectiveness and identify influencing factors. This paper adopts the multi-dimensional evaluation method which includes eight key dimensions: benefit, efficiency, adequacy, economy, fairness, responsiveness, appropriateness and stability. Data were collected through questionnaire survey and expert interview in Gansu and Shaanxi provinces. The analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the weight of indicators, while the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method quantified the policy effect. The results show that the overall effectiveness of the policy is high, especially in terms of adequacy and benefit, while f responsiveness and fairness demonstrate lower performance. Disparities exist between urban and rural areas as well as regional differences. Further analysis of the factors influencing policy effectiveness, employing the Horn-Mitter model, revealed that policy objectives and standards, resources, implementation and intervention, and environmental conditions significantly affect outcomes. The research shows that policy implementation and intervention are the core of policy effectiveness, while policy standards and objectives play a “baton” role. It is recommended that policymakers prioritize fairness and responsiveness in future policy formulations, and enhance urban-rural and regional equity to batter meet the needs of the elderly.更多还原