【摘要】 在我国区域人口增减分化的背景下，都市圈成为区域协调发展和超大特大城市人口空间治理的重要工具。基于第五、第六、第七次人口普查数据，以超大特大城市都市圈为对象，应用都市圈人口演变模型和随机森林回归分析等方法，研究全国都市圈人口空间格局演化趋势与规律，并分析其影响因素。主要结论有：(1)2000—2020年，全国人口从非都市圈地区向都市圈中心城市集聚，超大特大城市都市圈人口增长呈现南快北慢、南升北降趋势，都市圈中心城市增长和外围区域减少趋势明显。(2)2010—2020年超大特大城市都市圈人口圈层演化呈现持续增长、止增收缩、止降回升、持续收缩四种模式，分别处在向心扩散、初期离心、离心型等不同的发展阶段。(3)经济因素是影响都市圈人口空间演变的主导因素，与经济发展密切相关的社会因素对都市圈人口布局有显著影响，自然因素通过影响都市圈宜居度和承载力影响人口空间布局。最后提出差异性进行都市圈建设，高效治理化都市圈的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the divergence between population growth and decline in China becomes increasingly pronounced, metropolitan areas have become important tools for coordinated regional development and population governance in megacities. Based on data from the Fifth, Sixth, and Seventh National Population Censuses, this paper analyzes the evolution and influencing factors of population distribution in Chinese metropolitan areas by population evolution models and random forest regression model. The main conclusions are as follows. First, population migration was primarily toward central cities in metropolitan areas from other regions between 2000 and 2010. Megacities′ population exhibited a distinct north-south divergence, characterized by faster growth in the southern regions and slower growth or even decline in the northern regions, with central cities experiencing growth while peripheral cities contracted. Second, the population dynamics manifested four evolutionary modes: sustained growth, growth cessation followed by contraction, contraction cessation followed by growth, and sustained contraction between 2010 and 2020,, which progressed through distinct developmental phases, including centripetal diffusion, initial centrifugal stages, and centrifugal expansion. Third, Economic factors dominated the evolution of metropolitan populations, while social factors closely tied to economic development significantly influenced population distribution. Natural factors indirectly shape spatial patterns by affecting livability and carrying capacity. Finally, recommendations are proposed for differentiated population regulation strategies.更多还原