【摘要】 城市水资源的平衡分配与健康利用已成为影响区域经济社会可持续发展的核心议题。现有研究主要聚焦单一用水领域，缺乏从生活用水与生产用水双重视角对水平衡与水健康进行系统性分析的框架。基于2000—2022年全国水资源与城市经济社会数据，采用长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型对2050年的城市生活—生产用水趋势进行动态预测。研究发现，到2050年，我国城市生活用水平衡与健康状况存在显著差异，部分城市呈现高城镇化伴随水资源利用效率下降的“不健康”趋势，而生产用水则随着工业化提升和产业升级显示出较好的“健康”态势。不同区域在用水供需上的差异反映了区域间的水资源错配格局与发展不平衡特征。高城镇化率与高工业化率区域用水压力较大，而资源总量相对缺乏；而资源丰富但城镇化和工业化水平较低的地区存在发展潜力。更多还原

【Abstract】 The sustainable and balanced utilization of urban water resources has become a pivotal issue affecting regional economic and social sustainability. Existing research primarily concentrates on single water-use sectors, lacking a systematic analytical framework that examines water balance and water health from both domestic and industrial perspectives. Drawing on national water resource and urban socio-economic data from 2000 to 2022, this study employs a Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM) model to dynamically forecast urban domestic and industrial water use trends up to 2050. The findings indicate significant disparities in the balance and health of urban domestic water use across China by 2050. Some cities exhibit an "unhealthy" trajectory of high urbanization accompanied by declining water utilization efficiency, while industrial water use shows a favorable "healthy" trend with advancing industrialization and industrial upgrading. Regional differences in water supply-demand and efficiency reflect patterns of water resource misallocation and uneven development. Areas with high urbanization and industrialization rates face substantial water stress, urgently requiring improvements in resource utilization efficiency, whereas regions rich in resources but with lower levels of urbanization and industrialization possess considerable development potential.更多还原