【摘要】 认知障碍作为显著与高龄相关、严重影响老年人自理能力的慢性疾病之一，给老年人自身、家庭和社会都带来了极大的负担。本文基于疾病动态均衡理论视角，从疾病患病水平和构成两个方面，利用年龄-时期-队列分析方法综合探究1998—2018年我国高龄老年人认知障碍患病率和中重度认知障碍比例的发展趋势。研究发现，从短期和中期来看，随着人口高龄化发展，我国未来老年人认知障碍相关的医疗卫生服务负担将继续上升，不仅来自于高龄老年人认知障碍患病风险的上升，还受到患病人群中重度比例上升的影响；但从疾病的队列改善趋势看，未来环境优化、健康教育普及等措施有助于减轻认知障碍的长期负担。更多还原

【Abstract】 Cognitive impairment is one of the prominent chronic conditions that has a significant association with advanced age and exerts severe effects on self-care abilities of the elderly, imposing substantial burdens on elderly individuals, families and society. Based on the morbidity dynamic equilibrium theory, we comprehensively explored the trends in the prevalence of cognitive impairment and the proportion of moderate-to-severe cognitive impairment among oldest-old adults in China from 1998 to 2018 by using an age-period-cohort(APC) model. The results revealed that,in the short-and medium-term, the burden of medical and health services related to cognitive impairment among oldest-old adults in China will continue to rise with the advancement of population aging. This increase may be attributed not only to the growing risk of cognitive impairment among oldest-old adults but also to the rising proportion of moderate-to-severe cases within the affected population. In view of the cohort effects on improving cognitive impairment, in the long term, there is a possibility of a reduction in cognitive impairment burden owing to measures such as environment improvement and popularization of health education.更多还原