【摘要】 特朗普2.0时代的美国南海政策虽尚未成形，但表现出深化美菲军事合作、拼凑针对中国的“南海同盟”、利用关税等武器塑造越南等争端当事国对美国的安全依赖等动向。南海问题的工具性定位、对华偏好“软制衡”、融入“反衰落主义”的意识形态元素等，共同构成了英国对南海问题的思维惯性。这种惯性被置于英国落实战略重心“向印太倾斜”走向保守和务实的大框架下，对美国的南海政策将产生“积极”和“消极”的双重影响。总体而言，形成之中的美国南海政策将趋于相对克制和保守，未来英美会淡化地缘政治竞争，更多在涉南海的具体议题上展开功能性合作。更多还原

【Abstract】 While the US’ South China Sea policy in the Trump 2.0 era is yet to be fully formulated, it has exhibited such tendencies as deepening US-Philippines military cooperation, forging a “South China Sea alliance” targeting China, and leveraging tools like tariffs to cultivate the security dependence of dispute parties such as Vietnam on the US. The instrumental framing of the South China Sea issue, the preference for “soft balancing” against China, and the incorporation of ideological elements associated with “anti-declinism” collectively constitute the UK’s cognitive inertia regarding the South China Sea issue. Situated within the broader context of the UK’s conservative and pragmatic orientation in advancing “tilt to the Indo-Pacific”,this inertia will exert dual “positive” and “negative” impacts on the US’ South China Sea policy. Overall, the evolving US’ South China Sea policy will lean toward relative restraint and conservatism. In the future, the UK and the US will downplay geopolitical competition and conduct more functional cooperation on specific South China Sea-related issues.更多还原