【摘要】 为科学防控电动自行车火灾事故，本文对202起信息完整的电动自行车火灾案例进行剖析，提炼16个关键致灾因子；融合复杂网络理论与灾害链演化机理，构建“节点-边-属性”拓扑模型，量化其链式演化规律，并引入Jaccard指数、度中心性、边介数、连通度等指标，建立风险概率-损失-脆弱度三维评价模型，并计算37条边的风险度及排序。结果表明：“使用与维护监管缺失→违规充电→蓄电池热失控→自燃/爆炸”等4条灾害链风险度位列前4,构成网络核心脆弱单元。据此提出“断链减灾”策略，如推行电池溯源、夜间充电禁令、销售端资质抽检等。研究可精准识别干预关键链单元以显著降低整体网络风险，为电动自行车火灾精准防控提供理论依据与决策支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 To scientifically prevent and control electric bicycle fire accident, this study analyzes 202 electric bicycle fire cases with complete documentation, identifying 16 key disaster-inducing factors. Drawing upon complex network theory and the evolutionary mechanism of disaster chains, a “node-edge-attribute” topological model is constructed to quantify the cascading evolution patterns. Metrics including the Jaccard index, degree centrality, edge betweenness, and connectivity are incorporated to establish a three-dimensional risk assessment framework based on probability, loss, and vulnerability. The risk levels of 37 critical pathways are calculated and ranked accordingly. Results indicate that four primary disaster chains—such as “inadequate supervision of usage and maintenance → unauthorized charging → battery thermal runaway → spontaneous combustion/explosion”—exhibit the highest risk levels and constitute the core vulnerable components of the network. Based on these findings, a “chain-breaking and risk mitigation” strategy is proposed, encompassing measures such as battery traceability systems, nighttime charging prohibitions, and qualification-based sampling inspections for retailers. This research enables precise identification of critical intervention points within the disaster chain, thereby significantly reducing overall systemic risk and providing a theoretical foundation and decision-making support for targeted prevention and control of electric bicycle fires.更多还原