【摘要】 为提升城市高压燃气管道区域的人员安全水平与规划决策效率，本文研究了社会风险约束下的高压燃气管道区域人员安全性评估方法。首先，基于定量风险评价指南中的多能法爆炸超压模型，推导管道压力、管径与爆炸超压分布的快速计算公式，降低定量评估方法在规划应用中的技术难度；其次，通过分析现有复杂评估流程与规划难以衔接的问题，构建面向规划决策的高压燃气管道区域人员安全性评估框架，揭示超压分布、人口密度分布与累计频率对社会风险曲线的影响规律，进而建立社会风险约束条件下的允许规划人口密度分布模式；最后，选取华北某市高压燃气管道进行实例研究，采用专业风险评估软件对评估方法的准确性进行验证。结果表明：提出的评估方法能快速分析高压管道区域人口密度分布的安全性，爆炸超压预测的误差控制在5%以内，优化后的人口规划方案使社会风险达到可接受水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to improve the safety level and planning decision-making efficiency of personnel in urban high-pressure gas pipeline areas, this paper studies the safety assessment method of personnel in high-pressure gas pipeline areas under societal risk constraints. Firstly, based on the multi energy explosion overpressure model in the quantitative risk assessment guidelines, a fast calculation formula for pipeline pressure, pipe diameter, and explosion overpressure distribution was derived, reducing the technical difficulty of quantitative assessment methods in planning applications. Secondly, by analyzing the problem of poor integration between existing complex evaluation processes and planning, a safety assessment framework for personnel in high-pressure gas pipeline areas was constructed for planning decision-making. The impact of overpressure distribution, population density distribution, and cumulative frequency on the societal risk curve was revealed, and a permissible population density distribution pattern under societal risk constraints was proposed. Finally, a high-pressure gas pipeline in a city in North China was selected for case study, and professional risk assessment software was used to verify the accuracy of the assessment method. The results show that the proposed evaluation method can quickly analyze the safety of population density distribution in high-pressure pipeline areas, control the error of explosion overpressure prediction within 5%, and optimize the population plan to achieve an acceptable level of societal risk.更多还原