【摘要】 目的 构建安徽省重点传染病监测预警指标体系，规范传染病监测预警系统的建设和应用。方法 通过文献回顾和专题小组讨论构建指标体系的初步框架，邀请省内外18名专家开展德尔菲法专家咨询，对各级指标进行评分，根据筛选条件及建议确定最终指标体系，利用层次分析法确定各指标的权重。结果 2轮专家咨询的积极系数均为100%，权威系数均≥0.91，各指标肯德尔协调系数为0.249～0.377(P均<0.05)。最终构建包含3个一级指标、9个二级指标、43个三级指标的重点传染病监测预警指标体系。一、二和三级指标中权重最高的分别为“暴发/流行风险因素监测预警指标”“疾病监测及突发公共卫生事件报告”和“蚊、蜱、鼠等病媒生物病原体携带率、种群密度变化”。结论 本次研究构建的重点传染病监测预警指标体系具有一定的科学性和合理性。今后通过实地应用验证，不断完善指标体系，可为安徽省重点传染病的早期发现、早期预警提供理论参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To establish a surveillance and early warning indicator system for key infectious diseases in Anhui Province, and standardize the construction and application of surveillance and early warning system. Methods A preliminary framework of the indicator system was developed through literature review and focus group discussions. Eighteen experts from within and outside Anhui Province were invited to conduct a Delphi expert consultation to score indicators at all levels. The final indicator system was determined based on screening criteria and expert suggestions, and the weights of each indicator were calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process. Results The positive coefficients of two rounds of expert consultations were both 100%, and the authority coefficients were both ≥0.91. The Kendall’s coordination coefficients of each index ranged from 0.249 to 0.377(all P<0.05). The final monitoring and early warning indicator system consisted of 3 first-level indicators, 9 second-level indicators, and 43 third-level indicators. The indicators with the highest weights at the first, second, and third levels were “surveillance and early warning indicators for outbreak/epidemic risk factors”“disease surveillance and public health emergency reports” and “pathogen carrier rates and population density changes of vectors such as mosquitoes, ticks, and rodents”, respectively. Conclusion The surveillance and early warning indicator system for key infectious diseases constructed in this study has certain scientificity and rationality. In the future, through field application verification, the indicator system will be continuously improved to provide theoretical references for the early detection and warning of key infectious diseases in Anhui Province.更多还原