【摘要】 目的 系统评价直肠癌患者术后低位前切除综合征发生风险预测模型。方法 计算机检索PubMed、Web of Science、Embase、Cochrane Library、Scopus、CINHAL、CNKI、CBM、WanFang Data和VIP数据库，搜集与研究目的相关的研究，检索时限均为建库至2023年6月13日。由2名研究者独立筛选文献，按照预测模型系统评价的关键评估和数据提取清单（CHARMS）提取数据，应用预测模型研究偏倚风险评估工具（PROBAST）评价研究质量。结果 共纳入14项研究。所有研究都报告了模型区分度，其中10项研究报告了校准。8项研究对模型进行了内部验证，5项研究进行了外部验证。纳入模型最常见的预测因子为肿瘤距肛缘的距离、新辅助治疗、吻合口瘘、BMI。仅5项研究的整体适用性较好，所有研究均有很高的偏倚风险，偏倚风险主要来源于研究对象、结果、分析领域。结论 直肠癌患者术后低位前切除综合征发生风险预测模型尚存在诸多不足，未来研究可考虑对现有模型进行外部验证和重新校准，或参照方法学指南构建新的预测模型并进行验证。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To systematically review the risk prediction models for the occurrence of low anterior resection syndrome in patients with rectal cancer after surgery. Methods The PubMed, Web of Science, Embase,Cochrane Library, Scopus, CINHAL, CNKI, CBM, WanFang Data and VIP databases were electronically searched to collect studies related to the objectives from inception to June 13, 2023. Two reviewers independently screened the literature, extracted data using the critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies(CHARMS) checklist, and assessed quality of the included studies using prediction model risk of bias assessment tool(PROBAST). Results A total of 14 studies were included, all studies reported model discrimination, and 10 studies reported calibration. The models were internally validated in 8 studies, externally validated in 5 studies. The most common predictors included in the models were tumour distance from the anal verge, neoadjuvant therapy, anastomotic leak and BMI. Only 5 studies had good overall applicability, and all studies had a high risk of bias, with the risk of bias mainly stemming from the field of participants, outcomes and analysis. Conclusion There are still many shortcomings in the risk prediction models for the occurrence of low anterior resection syndrome in patients with rectal cancer after surgery. Future studies may consider external validation and recalibration of existing models. New prediction models should be built and validated according to methodological guidelines.更多还原