【摘要】 目的：了解气候变化情景下白刺属植物在中国的潜在分布和种群动态，为白刺属在中国的保护与恢复提供理论依据。方法：利用144个分布点和9个环境因子，通过MaxEnt模型，模拟白刺属在不同时期（末次冰盛期、末次间冰期、当代和未来）在中国的适生区及迁移路线，并分析影响其分布的气候因素。结果：最暖季度的降水量（bio18）、年均温（bio1）、温度季节性变化标准差（bio4）和最冷季平均温（bio11）对白刺属分布有重要影响，其适宜范围分别为：50～250 mm、11～22.5℃、600～1 400和-12.5～-2.5℃。当代气候情景下，白刺属适生区在中国西北各地区均有分布，在陕西和山西也有少量分布，适生区总面积为277.17×104 km~2，高适生区为68.92×104 km~2，中适生区为90.03×104 km~2，低适生区为118.22×104 km~2。相比当代，末次冰盛期、末次间冰期和未来3个时期的高、中、低适生区面积均有所减少，另外，从末次冰盛期到末次间冰期，白刺属适生区总面积有所扩张。质心分析表明，在未来，白刺属有向低海拔处迁移的趋势。结论：在未来全球气候变暖的大背景下，白刺属植物将面临生存风险，应加强白刺属植物的保护和利用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: To understand the potential distribution and population dynamics of Nitraria under climate change scenarios, and to provide theoretical basis for the conservation and restoration of Nitraria in China. Methods: 144 distribution sites and 9 environmental factors were used to simulate the suitable areas and migration routes of Nitraria in different periods(last glacial maximum, last interglacial, present and future) in China using the MaxEnt model, and the climatic factors affecting distribution of Nitraria were analyzed. Results: The distribution of Nitraria was significantly affected by precipitation in the warmest season(bio18), average annual temperature(bio1), standard deviation of seasonal temperature change(bio4) and average temperature in the coldest season(bio11), and their suitable ranges were as follows: 50 ～ 250 mm, 11 ～ 22.5℃, 600 ～ 1 400 and-12.5 ～-2.5℃. Under the contemporary climate scenario, the suitable area of Nitraria was distributed in all regions of northwest China, with a small distribution in Shaanxi and Shanxi. The total suitable area of contemporary was 277.17 × 104 km~2. The high, middle and low suitable area was 68.92 × 104 km~2, 90.03 × 104 km~2 and 118.22 × 104 km~2, respectively. Compared with the contemporary period, the high, middle and low suitable areas of the last glacial maximum, the last interglacial and the future all decreased. In addition, from the last glacial maximum to the last interglacial period, the suitable area of Nitraria expanded. Centroid analysis showed that the genus had a tendency to migrate to lower elevations in the future.Conclusion: Under the background of global warming in the future, the survival risk of Nitraria would be faced, and the protection and utilization of Nitraria should be strengthened.更多还原