【摘要】 现有的公路项目安全性评价主要基于车辆运行速度的协调性，并未考虑交通状况和驾驶人可能出现的注意力不集中情况。考虑驾驶人分心驾驶和交通状况，提出一种高速公路合流区安全性评价方法：将驾驶行为、交通流及合流区几何设计等因素纳入到安全评价模型中，构建高速公路合流区的Vissim仿真模型，通过设置临时走神的持续时长和发生概率这两个参数实现对分心驾驶行为的模拟；采用灰色聚类方法综合评价高速公路合流区的交通安全性，构建入口匝道合流区的风险预测模型，并应用该模型预测依托工程高速公路入口匝道合流区的交通安全风险。研究发现入口匝道合流区的风险预测值符合多元线性回归，在相似的交通流状态下随着走神时间、走神概率的增加而单调递增。除了驾驶行为因素，交通量、主线与匝道运行速度差是影响合流区交通安全的另外两个主要因素。当高速公路主线交通量较大时，合理的限速可以降低合流区的风险水平。提出的考虑分心驾驶行为的安全性评价方法可快速、全面地评价合流区的风险水平，为制定合理的交通管制措施、改善公路合流区交通安全提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The current highway safety audit specifications are mainly based on the consistency of vehicle operating speeds and ignore the driving environment and the drivers’ possible inattention. A safety evaluation method is proposed in this study with consideration of distracted driving and the traffic conditions in freeway merging areas. This study introduces many factors related to driving behaviour, traffic flow and merging area alignment design into the safety evaluation model. Simulation models of freeway merging areas were established based on Vissim, and the distracted driving behaviour was simulated by setting two parameters: duration and probability of temporary distraction. The traffic safety risks of the freeway merging areas were comprehensively assessed by the grey clustering method. The risk prediction models were established for on-ramp merging areas. The risk prediction models were applied to evaluate the risk level of the merging areas of on-ramps in supporting freeway project. Conclusions were summarised as follows: the risk prediction values of on-ramp merging areas agree with multiple linear regression and increase monotonically with the duration and probability of temporary distraction under the similar traffic flow state. In addition to factors related to driving behaviour, the traffic volume and the speed difference between the main line and the on-ramp are the other two main factors influencing traffic safety in the merging areas. When the main line of the freeway has a large traffic volume, a rational speed limit can reduce the risk level of the merging areas. The new safety evaluation method proposed in this study involving distracted driving behaviour can quickly and comprehensively evaluate the risk level of the merging areas and provide a theoretical basis for formulating traffic control measures and improving traffic safety in the freeway merging areas.更多还原