【摘要】 内河水上交通事故会导致较严重的人员伤亡和财产损失，故对内河水上交通安全进行风险评估是十分必要的。以杭州钱塘江通航水域为例，通过问卷调研法确定了内河水上交通安全的13种风险源、10种可能的危害后果及4种危害后果等级；构建了两个层级的水上交通安全风险影响因素评价指标体系，并运用层次分析和模糊综合评判法，建立了由危害后果等级、危害后果发生的概率、危害后果判断系数综合得到的内河水上交通安全风险评估模型，并对其中的风险源——“普货船航行、停泊和作业”进行了模型计算和验证，从而为相关管理单位对内河水上交通安全风险评估提供参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is necessary to conduct a risk assessment of inland water traffic safety as accidents can cause serious casualties and property damage.This article took the navigable waters of Qiantang River in Hangzhou as an example, and determined 13 risk sources, 10 possible harmful consequences, and 4 levels of harmful consequences for inland water traffic safety through questionnaire survey; A two-level evaluation index system for water traffic safety risk influencing factors was constructed, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method were used to establish an inland water traffic safety risk assessment model based on the hazard consequence level, probability of hazard consequence occurrence and hazard consequence judgment coefficient. The risk source of General Cargo Ship Navigation, Berthing and Operation was calculated and verified by the model. The research results of the article can provide a reference basis for relevant management units to assess the safety risks of inland water transportation.更多还原