【摘要】 橡胶种植公司是近代上海股市中公司数量最多的一个行业板块，然而，相关研究一般仅限于清末“橡胶风潮”这一短暂时期，而忽略了这些公司的长期业绩表现。我们收集了1937年之前上海众业公所上市的所有橡胶公司的股价、股利和重组等信息，并在此基础上编制了1909—1936年的橡胶股年度业绩指数以及橡胶风潮时期的月度业绩指数。我们发现，橡胶风潮的影响主要限于二级市场的橡胶股价格和从事橡胶股投机的钱庄，并未给其他行业股价带来严重的负面影响。风潮之后，大部分橡胶公司的生产经营仍在正常开展。橡胶股尽管波动巨大，然而其长期收益率高于无风险利率，即使经过风险调整，橡胶股仍然存在一定的超额收益。本文从橡胶板块的视角为近代上海股市的收益和风险状况提供了新的定量化认识。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rubber plantation companies constituted the industry sector with most populous constituents in the Shanghai stock market in the early 20^th century. However, relevant research is generally limited to the short period of the rubber boom at the end of the Qing Dynasty, and has ignored the long-term performance of these companies. Based on a novel hand-collected dataset of rubber shares, we compile the rubber share price index during the period from 1909 to 1936. We show that the impact of the rubber share crash was limited to the rubber shares and the native banks speculating in rubber shares, and the crash did not bring serious negative effects on other industry stocks. After the crash most rubber companies operated normally. Although rubber shares were subject to significant fluctuations, their long-term return rate was higher than the risk-free interest rate, and they offered some excess returns after risk adjustment. From the perspective of rubber companies, we provide a quantitative understanding of the returns and risks of the modern Shanghai stock market.更多还原