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灾害应对措施下的北京道路拥堵时空变化

Spatiotemporal Changes in Beijing’s Road Congestion Under Disaster Response Measures

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【作者】 刘晓燕; 杨赛霓; 汪伟平; 周子滢; 刘欢; 焦振寰; 石永国;

【Author】 LIU Xiaoyan;YANG Saini;WANG Weiping;ZHOU Ziying;LIU Huan;JIAO Zhenhuan;SHI Yongguo;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters,Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University;Joint International Research Laboratory of Catastrophe Simulation and Systemic Risk Governance,Beijing Normal University;School of National Safety and Emergency Management,Beijing Normal University;Disaster Prevention Research Institute,Kyoto University;Changping Hydrology and Water Quality Monitoring Center,Beijing;Zhejiang Academy of Emergency Management Science;Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Safety Engineering and Technology;

【通讯作者】 杨赛霓;

【机构】 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室; 教育部巨灾模拟与系统性风险应对国际合作联合实验室; 北京师范大学国家安全与应急管理学院; 京都大学防灾研究所; 北京市昌平区水文水质监测中心; 浙江省应急管理科学研究院; 浙江省安全工程与技术研究重点实验室;

【摘要】 暴雨灾害给城市正常运转带来了巨大挑战,道路交通由于直接暴露在户外、承载多种出行方式和海量刚需活动,需要重点关注与积极应对。该研究以北京五环内为研究区,使用精细的道路拥堵数据,从时空维度评价了2021年北京最大暴雨事件及多种应对措施下的交通状况。结果表明:(1)道路拥堵在常态下具有鲜明的日际、周际规律,而降雨和应对措施会导致极其显著的变化;(2)拥堵变化的时间序列呈现对勾形态,即暴雨当日拥堵缓解,而前后日拥堵加重,体现了应对措施的阶段性效果;(3)城市内部的拥堵变化具有空间异质性,暴雨当日北部和东部地区的拥堵大幅缓解,而次日拥堵整体加重且高度聚集;(4)分时段分区域统计显示,早高峰和环线的拥堵变化最为强烈;(5)相关性分析识别了应对措施的有效作用对象,证实了众多行业部门对于暴雨预警的积极响应以及弹性上下班建议的执行成效。研究发现,暴雨应对措施在局部上有效减轻了交通压力,但伴随的拥堵转移现象需要在实施应对措施前被充分考虑。

【Abstract】 The rainstorm disaster has brought great challenges to global cities. Road traffic often faces high risks because it is directly exposed to the outdoor environment and supports multiple activities,which eagerly necessitates response measures. Using fine congestion data,this research comprehensively evaluates the road traffic changes under a typical event in Beijing city. The results show that:(1)road congestion owns distinct intraday and intraweek patterns,while precipitation and measures bring about significant changes;(2)the congestion change series displays a“√”form,that is,the congestion eases on Monday and aggravates on other days. This phenomenon reflects the process impact brought by response measures;(3)congestion changes within the city reveal obvious spatial heterogeneity. Monday’s decrease is prominent in the north and east,while Tuesday’s increase is widespread and intensely concentrated;(4)spatiotemporal change values are calculated,finding that the morning peak and ring roads alter greatly;(5)targets of rainstorm measures are identified via correlation analysis,confirming the active response of different facilities and the effective implementation of flexible commuting. Our research points out that Beijing’s rainstorm response measures have reduced traffic pressure locally,but the accompanying congestion shifts need to be further considered.

【基金】 浙江省科学技术厅“领雁”项目“台风-暴雨-内涝综合风险监测评估与应用示范研究”(2022C03107);国家自然科学基金青年项目“极端洪水对轨道和道路交通耦合系统的破坏机理解析及恢复策略优化”(72001018);广东省自然科学基金面上项目“不同类型打击下的复杂耦合交通网络鲁棒性理论与方法研究”(2023A1515010604)
  • 【文献出处】 灾害学 ,Journal of Catastrophology , 编辑部邮箱 ,2024年04期
  • 【分类号】X4;U491.265
  • 【下载频次】42
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