【摘要】 工业绿色转型是实现新型工业化的重要条件，也是建设工业强国的关键环节。为进一步识别工业绿色转型的新动力，厘清对外直接投资对工业绿色转型的影响效应与跃迁趋势，基于中国30个省份2004—2020年的面板数据，该研究构建双边随机前沿模型测算了对外直接投资对工业绿色转型的溢出效应、挤出效应以及净效应，并结合Markov链方法预测对外直接投资对工业绿色转型净效应影响的跃迁趋势。结果表明：(1)对外直接投资对工业绿色转型具有溢出和挤出双重效应，溢出效应使工业绿色转型提高了31.472%，挤出效应使工业绿色转型降低了11.739%，二者的净效应使工业绿色转型实际提高了19.733%。(2)对外直接投资对工业绿色转型的溢出效应占主导地位，但在时间和空间上具有异质性，剔除挤出效应的影响，净效应在2004—2020年间呈现出先升后降的倒“U”型特征，并在中部最大、东部最小。(3)生产要素由资源依赖向技术依赖的优化调整能够与对外直接投资形成协作适配，促进工业绿色转型。(4)对外直接投资对工业绿色转型的净效应有一定程度的稳定性，拥有长期增长趋势，但也有跌落的风险。因此，未来应持续扩大对外直接投资规模、优化投资结构、推进国际科技合作，通过强化对外直接投资的溢出效应和削弱其挤出效应助力工业绿色转型。更多还原

【Abstract】 Industrial green transformation is an important condition for China to realize its new industrialization and a pivotal part for the country to become an industrial power. To further identify the new dynamics of industrial green transformation and clarify the effects of outward foreign direct investment(OFDI) on industrial green transformation and its leapfrogging tendency, this study constructed a bilateral stochastic frontier model to measure the spillover effect, crowding out effect, and net effect of OFDI on industrial green transformation using panel data from 30 provinces from 2004 to 2020. Furthermore, the development trend of the net effect of OFDI on industrial green transformation was predicted by combining with the Markov chain method. The results showed that:(1) OFDI had both spillover and crowding out effects on industrial green transformation. The spillover effect increased industrial green transformation by 31.472%,the crowding out effect decreased it by 11.739%, and the net effect increased it by 19.733%.(2) The spillover effect of OFDI on industrial green transformation was dominant but heterogeneous in time and space. After excluding the effect of crowding out, the net effect showed an inverted U-shaped characteristic of rising and then falling during 2004—2020 and was the largest in the central region and the smallest in the eastern region.(3) The adjustment of factor dependence from resource to technology played a collaborative adaptation role in the dual effects of OFDI on industrial green transformation.(4) The net effect of OFDI on industrial green transformation was stable, with a long-term growth tendency, but also with a risk of falling. Therefore, in the future, we should continue to expand the scale of OFDI, optimize the investment structure, promote cross-border scientific and technological cooperation, and help industrial green transformation by strengthening the spillover effect of OFDI and weakening the crowding out effect.更多还原