【摘要】 目的 评价18-60岁人群对父母接种流感疫苗的意愿并构建预测模型。方法 采用方便抽样方法于2022年10-11月在上海市2个区37个接种门诊选择18-60岁居民开展网络问卷调查，分析其对父母流感疫苗接种的意愿及其影响因素，构建影响因素的列线图模型以预测意愿概率，采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线和拟合优度检验评价模型的预测效能、校准度和拟合优度。结果 调查对象对其父母流感疫苗接种的总意愿率为77.84%(2 943/3 781),多因素Logistic回归分析显示公共部门就业和无业(OR=1.27,95%CI:1.03-1.57;OR=1.62,95%CI:1.22-2.16)、购买商业医疗保险(OR=1.34,95%CI:1.01-1.76)、单渠道和多渠道获取知识(OR=2.10,95%CI:1.67-2.64;OR=3.10,95%CI:2.40-3.99)、流感疫苗知识知晓度高(OR=1.74,95%CI:1.27-2.39)、自身愿意接种流感疫苗(OR=12.29,95%CI:10.01-14.96)的调查对象的意愿更高。在构建的预测模型中，ROC曲线下面积为0.826(95%CI:0.808-0.843);预测概率与实际概率的平均误差为-0.002 1±0.007 5;拟合优度较好(χ~2=-2 916.50,P=1.000)。结论 调查地区18-60岁人群对父母流感疫苗接种的意愿较高，构建的列线图模型的预测效能较好。建议重点加强青壮年人群多渠道流感/流感疫苗知识宣传，促进其父母特别是老年人流感疫苗接种。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To assess willingness of 18-60-year-old individuals to have their parents vaccinated against seasonal influenza, and to construct a willingness prediction model.Methods We selected a convenience sample of 18-60-year-old residents who visited any of 37 vaccination clinics in two districts of Shanghai during October and November 2022 for an online questionnaire-based survey. We analyzed subjects′ willingness to have their parents vaccinated against influenza and factors influencing subjects′ willingness. We constructed a nomogram model of factors to predict the probability of willingness to have parents vaccinated and used receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve, calibration curve, and Hosmer-Lemeshow testing to evaluate the efficiency, accuracy, and goodness of fit of the model.Results In total, 77.84%(2 943/3 781) of subjects were willing to have their parents vaccinated against influenza. Multivariate logistic regression showed that willingness was high among subjects who worked in the public sector or were unemployed(OR=1.27, 95%CI:1.03-1.57; OR=1.62, 95%CI:1.22-2.16), who had commercial medical insurance(OR=1.34, 95%CI: 1.01-1.76), who acquired knowledge through single or multiple channels(OR=2.10, 95%CI: 1.67-2.64; OR=3.10, 95%CI: 2.40-3.99), who had a high level of knowledge about influenza vaccine(OR=1.74, 95%CI: 1.27-2.39), and who themselves were willing to receive influenza vaccine(OR=12.29, 95%CI: 10.01-14.96). In the constructed prediction model, the area under ROC curve was 0.826(95%CI: 0.808-0.843); the average error between predicted and actual probability was-0.002 1±0.007 5, with a high goodness of fit(χ~2=-2 916.50, P=1.000).Conclusions The willingness of 18-60-year-old individuals to have their parents vaccinated against influenza was high in the surveyed areas, and our prediction model had satisfactory efficiency. We recommend enhancing multi-channel health education on knowledge about influenza and influenza vaccine for young adults in order to promote influenza vaccination of their parents, particularly elderly parents.更多还原