【摘要】 为有效监测和防控内蒙古地区的蝗灾，本研究按照草原蝗虫孵化期、发育期、产卵期和越冬期4个时期划分蝗虫适宜性等级，使用生境适宜性模型构建2001～2020年内蒙古蝗虫适生区空间分布，运用地理探测器分析驱动因子，揭示蝗虫适生区时空变化的驱动特征。结果显示，蝗虫最适宜和较适宜发生区域主要集中在内蒙古中部及北部地区，适宜性由中部向两侧递减。蝗虫适生区的面积随时间波动变化，最适宜和较适宜区域面积占比约17%，总体呈现减少趋势，适宜发生年主要在2001年、2007年、2010年、2011年、2017年。从时间序列看，总适宜指数从2001年的72.99变化为2020年的71.13，总体上呈现下降趋势。蝗虫适生区变化最显著的驱动因子是地表温度，其次是植被类型，q值分别为0.43、0.40；双因子交互作用探测分析表明，地表温度和植被类型的交互作用是影响蝗虫适生区的最显著因素，蝗虫适生区的形成是多种驱动因子相互作用的结果。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to effectively monitor and control locust infestation in Inner Mongolia, this study divided the suitability grade of locusts into four periods: hatching, development, egg-laying and overwintering. Habitat suitability model was used to construct the spatial distribution of locust suitability zones in Inner Mongolia from 2001 to 2020. Geographical detectors were used to analyze driving factors and reveal the driving characteristics of spatiotemporal changes in locust suitability zones. The results showed that the most suitable and more suitable areas for locust occurrence were mainly concentrated in the central and northern parts of Inner Mongolia, and the suitability decreased from the center to both sides. The area of locust suitability habitat fluctuated with time and the area of the most suitable and more suitable accounted for about 17%, and showed a decreasing trend in general, and the suitable occurrence years were mainly in 2001, 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2017. From the perspective of time series, the total suitability index showed a decreasing trend from 72. 99(the year 2001) to 71. 13(the year 2020). The most significant driving factor of locust suitability zone was land surface temperature, followed by vegetation type, with q-values of 0. 43 and 0. 40, respectively. The interaction between land surface temperature and vegetation type was the most significant factor affecting locust suitability zone, and the formation of locust suitability zone was the result of the interaction of various driving factors.更多还原