【摘要】 可再生能源出力的多重不确定性对系统安全、经济运行的影响，已成为以风、光为主体的高比例可再生能源综合能源系统亟须解决的问题。在构建的日前调度模型基础上，基于可再生能源发电功率概率预测模型，以其预测置信度为决策变量，引入经济性、风电机组及光伏机组发电功率越限惩罚三个评价指标，提出一种外层为多目标优化、内层为两阶段鲁棒优化的日前调度方法。仿真结果表明：通过对可再生能源发电功率概率预测模型置信度的寻优，可以得到兼顾鲁棒性和经济性的日前调度计划。该方法可充分考虑可再生能源多重不确定性对日前调度计划的影响，为含高比例可再生能源的综合能源系统的安全、高效运行提供指导。更多还原

【Abstract】 The impact of multiple uncertainties of renewable energy power output on the safe and economic operation of the system has become a problem that needs to be solved urgently for the high proportion of renewable energy integrated energy system mainly based on wind and light. On the basis of the constructed day-ahead scheduling model, based on the probabilistic prediction model of renewable energy power generation, by taking its prediction confidence as the decision variable, and introducing three evaluation indexes, namely, economy, wind turbine and photovoltaic unit power overrun penalties, a day-ahead scheduling method with multi-objective optimization on the outer layer and two-stage robust optimization on the inner layer is proposed. The simulation results show that the day-ahead scheduling plan can be obtained by optimizing the confidence level of the renewable energy generation power probability prediction model, which takes both robustness and economy into account. The method can fully consider the impact of multiple uncertainties of renewable energy sources on the day-ahead scheduling plan, and provide guidance for the safe and efficient operation of an integrated energy system containing a high proportion of renewable energy sources.更多还原