【摘要】 青藏高原是中国重要的高寒农牧区，其主要作物生产潜力评估对区域粮食安全和农业可持续发展具有重要意义.以青稞、小麦和油菜为研究对象，基于气候、土壤、海拔、地形、土地利用及社会经济等数据，采用逐级订正模型和方差分解分析方法，对1990-2020年青藏高原主要农作物生产潜力的空间分布、变化特征及其驱动因素进行全面评估.结果显示：30年间，3种作物的平均生产潜力整体呈上升趋势，高产区范围持续扩大，低产区面积显著缩小.青稞平均生产潜力从3 240.85 kg/hm~2增长到4 427.61 kg/hm~2，小麦平均生产潜力从4 633.055 kg/hm~2增长到6 373.54kg/hm~2，油菜平均生产潜力从1 900.14 kg/hm~2增长到2 603.62 kg/hm~2.高产区主要分布在青藏高原东南部和东北部适宜种植区域，而低产区集中在藏北高原和三江源地区.温度是影响作物生产潜力的关键因子，且与水分、风速等因子的协同作用显著增强了作物生产潜力的空间异质性.本研究表明青藏高原农作物生产力仍有挖掘空间，通过优化种植布局、提升单产水平和扩展种植面积，可进一步释放区域农业潜力；结果为制定区域农业发展战略、优化粮食生产格局和应对气候变化提供了科学依据.（图6参41）更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important high-altitude agricultural and pastoral region in China, establishing the production potential of major crops on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau has important implications for regional food security and sustainable agricultural development. In this study, we focused on three major crops cultivated on the plateau,namely, barley, wheat, and rapeseed. Using data on climate, soil, elevation, terrain, land use, and socioeconomic factors, we employed a stepwise correction model combined with variance decomposition analysis to comprehensively examine the temporal and spatial distribution, variation trends, and driving factors of crop production potential on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1990 to 2020. The results indicate that over the past 30years, the average production potential of all three crops has shown a general upward trend, with high-yielding areas continuing to expand and low-yielding areas undergoing a significant contraction. Specifically, the average production potentials of barley, wheat, and rapeseed increased from 3 240.85 to 4 427.61 kg/hm~2, 4 633.05 to 6 373.54 kg/hm~2, and 1 900.14 to 2 603.62 kg/hm~2, respectively. The high-yielding areas are predominantly located in the southeastern and northeastern regions, whereas low-yielding areas are concentrated in the northern Xizang Plateau and the Three-River-Source Region. Temperature was identified as the key factor influencing crop production potential, with its interactions with other variables, such as moisture and wind speed, contributing to a significant enhancement of the spatial heterogeneity of crop production. Our findings in this study highlight the substantial untapped potential for further advances in crop production on the QinghaiXizang Plateau. By optimizing cropping systems, improving crop yields, and expanding the area of suitable arable land, the agricultural productivity of the region could be further enhanced. These findings provide robust empirical evidence that will contribute to the formulation of regional agricultural strategies, the optimization of grain production systems, and the development of effective management for adaption to climate change.更多还原