【摘要】 目的:分析2013-2020年我国农村居民卫生负担的影响因素与发展趋势，为更好地满足农村居民卫生服务需求、降低其卫生负担提供一定参考。方法:通过灰色关联分析，探究农村居民卫生负担的影响因素，揭示各地区经济社会发展、人口结构与卫生资源配置对农村居民卫生负担的空间差异，并通过灰色预测模型对农村居民卫生负担增长趋势进行预测。结果:全国农村居民卫生负担整体呈上升趋势，卫生负担系数从2013年的0.071增加2020年的0.083,预计2030年将会上涨至0.121。个人卫生支出、农村老年抚养比、家庭卫生服务人次数、三级医院总数、城市医疗机构执业医师数等与农村居民卫生负担关联密切，基层医疗卫生机构诊疗人次与基层医疗卫生机构入院人数关联程度不高。不同地区间各要素的作用机制存在一定差异。结论:2013-2020年全国农村居民卫生负担呈现增长迅速、空间格局分布明显的特点。未来仍需深入推进县域医共体建设，织密家庭医生签约服务、乡村医生、全科医生等制度体系，以老龄化应对为重点，全面推动农村卫生事业健康发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective: To analyze the influencing factors and development trends of the health burden of rural residents in China from 2013 to 2020, so as to provide reference for better meeting rural residents’ demand for health services and reducing health burden. Methods: The influencing factors of rural residents’ health burden were explored by Grey correlation analysis, and the spatial differences of economic and social development, population structure and health resource allocation on rural residents’ health burden were revealed. The growth trend of rural residents’ health burden was predicted by Grey prediction model. Results: The overall health burden of rural residents in the country had been on the rise, with the health burden coefficient increasing from 0.071 in 2013 to 0.083 in 2020. It’s expected to further increase to 0.121 by 2030. Factors closely associated with the health burden of rural residents included personal health expenditure, the rural old-age dependency ratio, the number of family health service providers, the total number of tertiary hospitals, and the number of practicing doctors in urban medical institutions. However, the number of consultations and treatments in grassroots medical and health institutions did not highly correlate with the number of admissions. It should also be noted that the mechanisms of the various factors affecting the health burden of rural residents can differ across different regions. Conclusion: From 2013 to 2020, the health burden of rural residents in China shows characteristics of rapid growth and obvious spatial pattern distribution. In the future, it is still necessary to further promote the construction of county medical community, organize a system of contracted services for family doctors, rural doctors and general practitioners, and comprehensively promote the health development of rural health services focusing on the aging response.更多还原