【摘要】 本文通过泰尔指数、向量自回归(VAR)模型等刻画长江经济带跨界污染排放对区域经济增长的影响。结果表明:在样本区间2005—2020年间,长江经济带九省二市污染排放总体呈波动下降的趋势,但存在显著的空间差异;VAR模型显示长江经济带污染排放量的变化无法缩小污染排放差异,而污染排放差异的变化则会降低污染排放量;经济增长对污染排放有抑制作用,而污染排放并不会推动经济的增长,反而呈现出一定的负向效应;长江经济带污染排放差异与经济增长表现出微弱的相关性。因此,应进行科学有序开发,建立长效保护机制,在控制排放总量的同时注意消除区域差异,将短期效益与长期愿景相结合,探索因地制宜的环境规制措施,以此来推动长江经济带跨界水污染的协同治理。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper depicts the impact of transboundary pollution emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt on regional economic growth through Theil index and vector autoregression(VAR) models.The results show that:in the sample period from 2005 to 2020,the pollution discharge of nine provinces and two cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows a fluctuating and declining trend,but there are significant spatial differences;the VAR model shows that changes in the pollution discharge in the Yangtze River Economic Belt can not reduce the difference in pollution discharge.The change of the difference in pollution discharge will reduce the amount of pollution emissions;economic growth has an inhibitory effect on pollution emissions,while pollution emissions will not promote economic growth,but show a certain negative effect;differences in pollution emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt show a weak correlation with economic growth.Therefore,carry out scientific and orderly development,establish a long-term protection mechanism,pay attention to eliminating regional differences while controlling total emissions,combine shortterm benefits with long-term vision,and explore environmental regulation measures tailored to local conditions,so as to promote the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt collaborative governance of boundary water pollution.更多还原