【摘要】 集装箱吞吐量份额是沿海港口空间分布格局演化的关键指标。集装箱贸易份额与集装箱吞吐量份额的正相关关系在一定程度上体现了沿海港口空间分布的特征。本文以我国沿海集装箱港口为研究对象，深入探讨北极航线重塑沿海集装箱港口空间布局的作用机制。在量化贸易一般均衡模型中，将沿海集装箱港口贸易份额作为海运冰山贸易成本的内生影响因素，从而估计出北极航线对我国沿海集装箱港口贸易份额的影响。反事实分析结果显示，北极航线通过降低国际海运成本，重新配置全球集装箱港口贸易份额，改变了我国沿海港口集装箱的空间分布格局，对未来引导沿海港口投资与布局优化提供了量化依据与政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The share of container throughput is a critical indicator of the evolution of the spatial distribution of coastal ports.A positive correlation between container trade share and container throughput share reflects, to some extent, the spatial distribution characteristics of coastal ports.We take China’s coastal container ports as the research object to examine the mechanism by which remodeling of the Arctic shipping route affects the spatial distribution of coastal container ports.By incorporating the trade share of coastal container ports as an endogenous factor in shipping iceberg trade costs within a quantitative general equilibrium model, we estimate the impact of the Arctic shipping route on the trade share of China’s coastal container ports.Counterfactual analysis indicates that the Arctic shipping route reduces international shipping costs, reallocates the global container port trade share, and alters the spatial distribution of container throughput in China’s coastal ports.These findings provide new policy guidance for coastal port investments and port layouts in the future.更多还原