【摘要】 规划和建设东盟层面的地区安全力量是东盟国家所追求但至今却仍未被有效推动的议题。过往研究主要基于“东盟方式”、国家能力以及大国影响等单一因素来解释上述现象，却无法提出一个可供检验的综合性分析框架。为什么东盟迟迟无法推动安全力量这一机制安排的规划与建设？基于东盟情况，本文认为影响东盟国家有效推动安全力量规划与建设的因素有三，即：东盟内部领导权的确立、东盟区域韧性的外部效度以及东盟国家域内安全需求的集群性。这三个因素的影响是复合型的：东盟领导权模糊不清、东盟区域韧性的外部效度较低或域内国家安全需求集群性低，任一情况的出现都会使东盟安全力量的规划与建设陷入困境。通过对东盟安全合作发展历程的阶段性分析，本文证实了上述三种因素对东盟安全力量规划与建设的复合型影响。除了尝试在学理上提出分析东盟安全力量规划与建设困境的综合性分析框架，对深化中国与东盟的高质量安全合作、推动构建中国—东盟命运共同体提出可行建议亦是本文的题中之意。更多还原

【Abstract】 Projecting and constructing a systematic security arrangement that includes the security force under the framework of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) is an issue proposed several times by the ASEAN countries while it has not been achieved yet. Existing research offers some explanations for the individual effects of the ASEAN way, the ASEAN countries’ capabilities, or the impacts of major powers without providing a testable comprehensive analytical framework. Then, why has the ASEAN not yet built up its security force as an institutional arrangement?This article argues that three factors exert important impacts on the preferences and motivations of the ASEAN countries for the ASEAN security force: the ASEAN’ s leadership, the external validity of the ASEAN regional resilience, and the convergence of the ASEAN countries’ security demands. We argue further that only when all these factors are situated in a condition simultaneously where there is a consensus between the ASEAN countries on the ASEAN leadership, the relatively high level of external validity of the ASEAN regional resilience, as well as an increasingly convergent view on the security priorities within Southeast Asia, then there would be a significant improvement on the ASEAN countries’ preference for the ASEAN-level security force. In this case, the ASEAN security force is more likely to be projected and arranged. With this theoretical framework, we further analyze the ASEAN’s relatively unsuccessful pursuit of the security force in its history in different phases including the Cold War phase(1967-1991), the memberships enlargement phase(1992-2003), and the high-speed development phase(2004-present) respectively. We find that the relatively low level of external validity of the regional resilience, the disagreement on the leading country in the field of security within the ASEAN, and the decreasing trend of convergence on the security demands among the ASEAN countries are challenges for the ASEAN security force construction for the abovementioned three phases.In the future, the projection and construction of an ASEAN-level security force would remain an open question to both the ASEAN countries and other countries with great interests in Southeast Asia. However,it is noteworthy to investigate alternative approaches to security cooperation among the ASEAN and other countries to make the stability of Southeast Asia durable.更多还原