【摘要】 水资源承载力评价是了解水资源发展水平的关键，在水资源可持续发展中具有重要作用。从经济、社会、水资源和生态等4个方面出发，选取11个指标构成评价体系，采用组合赋权-TOPSIS方法和障碍度模型对山西省2011—2020年水资源承载力及障碍因子进行分析研究。结果表明：2011—2020年山西省水资源承载力主要呈上升趋势，不同子系统的变化趋势和增长幅度差异较大，经济子系统呈现稳定上升趋势，社会子系统承载力总体显现下降趋势，水资源子系统和生态子系统则存在较大波动；2011—2020年山西省水资源承载力的主要障碍因子为人均GDP、万元GDP用水量、人均用水量、有效灌溉面积/播种面积、年降水量、城镇率、人均水资源量、供水模数、单位播种面积化肥施用量。因此，山西省应优化产业结构、提高水资源利用率和构建水安全保障体系来提高水资源承载力，以保障经济社会的可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is the key to understand the development level of water resources and plays an important role in the sustainable development of water resources. Starting from the four aspects of economy, society,water resources and ecology, 11 indicators were selected to form an evaluation system. The combination weighting TOPSIS method and obstacle degree model were used to analyze and study the water resources carrying capacity of Shanxi province from 2011 to 2020, and the main obstacle factors were diagnosed. The results showed that the water resources carrying capacity of Shanxi province showed an increasing trend from 2011 to 2020. The change trend and growth range of different subsystems are different. The economic subsystem presents a stable upward trend, the social subsystem shows a downward trend, and the water resources subsystem and the ecological subsystem have a large fluctuation. The main obstacle factors of water resources carrying capacity in Shanxi province from 2011 to 2020 were GDP per capita, water consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP, water consumption per capita, effective irrigation area/sown area, annual precipitation, urbanization rate, water resources per capita,water supply module and fertilizer application per sown area. The research shows that Shanxi province should optimize the industrial structure, improve the utilization rate of water resources and construct the water security system to improve the carrying capacity of water resources, so as to ensure the sustainable development of economic society.更多还原