【摘要】 为探究非农化耕地的时空演变特征与估计耕地非农化对粮食生产的影响，以湖北省为研究区域，采用1980—2020年县级耕地利用栅格数据，对湖北省耕地非农化时空演变特征进行系统性研究，并建立固定效应模型探究耕地非农化对粮食生产的影响。结果表明：随着城镇化和工业化加速推进，城乡基本建设用地不断扩大，耕地非农化导致湖北省耕地面积下降。1980—2020年，耕地面积由72 103.42 km~2减少至66 984.31 km~2，年平均减少127.98 km~2;1980—2020年，湖北省耕地非农化面积在4个时期内呈波动增长趋势，耕地非农化等级高值区域主要集中在平原地区，而低值区集中在以山地为主的西南和东南地区；湖北省耕地非农化空间分布具有非均衡性，并呈向西北方向偏移的趋势，重心迁移的距离先增加后减小；耕地非农化呈现出空间正相关性，空间集聚程度总体呈现集聚性逐渐减弱趋势；耕地非农化对粮食生产产生显著的负向影响。基于上述结论，本文提出因地制宜治理耕地非农化行为、建设集约型城市、控制城市建设用地扩张规模、强化耕地用途管制、加强耕地资源保护等建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 To investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of the characteristics of non-farmed cropland and to estimate the impact of cropland de-farming on grain production, taking Hubei Province as the study area, this study adopted county-level cropland utilisation raster data from 1980 to 2020 to systematically investigate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of cropland de-agriculturalisation in Hubei Province, and established a fixed-effects model to explore the impact of cropland de-agriculturalisation on grain production. The results showed that with the acceleration of urbanisation and industrialisation, urban and rural basic construction land had been expanding, and the non-agriculturalisation of arable land had led to a declining trend in the arable land area of Hubei Province.From 1980 to 2020, the area of arable land decreased from 72 103.42 km~2to 66 984.31 km~2, with an average annual decrease of 127.98 km~2. The area of arable non-farming land in Hubei Province showed a fluctuating growth trend over the four periods,with the areas of high value of arable non-farming grades mainly concentrated in the plains, while the areas of low value were concentrated in the south-western and southeastern regions, which were dominated by mountainous areas.The spatial distribution of non-agriculturalisation of arable land in Hubei Province was non-equilibrium showing a continuous trend of shifting to the northwest, and the distance of the centre of gravity migration increased first and then decreased.The non-farming of arable land showed a positive spatial correlation, and the degree of spatial agglomeration generally showed a trend of gradually decreasing agglomeration.Cultivated land de-agrarianisation negatively affected food production. Based on the above conclusions, this paper put forward some suggestions,such as controlling the non-agricultural behavior of cultivated land according to local conditions, building intensive cities, controlling the expansion scale of urban construction land, strengthening the control of cultivated land use and strengthening the protection.更多还原