【摘要】 美西方对外制裁的一个显著特点是经济效果难以达到预期水平。原因主要是：(1)制裁政策的制定和实施过程受国内利益集团掣肘，对目标国难以造成最大经济损害，政治市场内生着减轻制裁效果的机制。(2)通过国际市场，制裁的经济效果会因第三方存在而被稀释。(3)以联盟方式进行制裁，制裁的利益分享和成本分摊具有国家非对称性，制裁政策难以得到一致有效执行，达不到预期效果。(4)目标国通过调整对外经济政策和国内经济运行可产生对冲制裁影响的机制。因此，美西方针对别国特别是大国进行制裁的效果尤其不理想。面对美西方制裁，中国利用非对称优势进行反制的手段越来越多，通过内循环形成自适应的能力越来越强，借助外循环产生的稀释作用越来越大。美西方制裁对中国经济发展短期内会产生干扰、带来不便，但是中国通过理性应对可以形成相对有利的新平衡。更多还原

【Abstract】 One notable feature of economic sanctions imposed by the US and its Western allies is that their economic effects often fall short of expectations. The main reasons for this are as follows.(1) The formulation and implementation of sanctions policies are influenced by domestic interest groups, making it difficult to inflict the maximum economic damage on the target country, and there are internal mechanisms that reduce the economic effectiveness of sanctions in the political market.(2) The economic effects of sanctions are diluted by third parties through international markets.(3) Sanctions are carried out in a coalition manner, resulting in asymmetrical benefit and cost-sharing among different participating countries, making it difficult to consistently and effectively implement sanctions policies and achieve its expected effects.(4) The target country can generate countermeasures against sanctions by adjusting its foreign economic policies and domestic economic operations. Therefore, the economic effects of sanctions imposed by the United States and its Western allies against other countries, especially major powers, are not ideal in particular. China is increasingly using asymmetric advantages to counter the sanctions imposed by the US and its Western allies, developing self-adaptive capabilities through domestic circulation, and leveraging the dilution effects of external circulation. The sanctions imposed by the US and its Western allies will cause short-term interference and inconvenience to China’s economic development, while China can form a relatively favorable new balance through rational responses.更多还原