【摘要】 长江经济带作为国民经济发展的重要战略支撑，绿色发展之路是促进其可持续发展的必经之路。本文基于生产、生活、生态三方面建立评价指标体系，通过熵权法对研究区130个城市在2010—2019年的绿色发展水平进行评价，通过全局Moran’ I指数，测算研究区2010年、2015年、2019年三个时间点的绿色发展水平空间关联格局，在此基础上采用空间杜宾模型对研究区绿色发展水平的影响因素进行分析。全文研究得出以下结论：一是从时间分布来看，研究区绿色发展的趋势为“N”型波动增长；二是从空间分布特征来看，研究区绿色发展水平下游>中游>上游，省市内部呈现东部发展趋势强于西部发展趋势，长三角地区的城市群呈现圈层结构；三是从空间差异性分析来看，区域内差异与区域间差异均呈现减小趋势，长江经济带的绿色发展总体差异呈“Λ”型波动；四是从空间自相关分析来看，莫兰点大部分集中在第一、三象限（高—高聚集、低—低聚集），区域间的聚集效应逐渐增强且聚集效应向外扩散；五是空间杜宾模型结果显示，经济发展、科技创新和产业结构对长江经济带的绿色发展产生正向影响，环境规制对绿色发展产生负向影响，而教育投入和对外开放对绿色发展的影响不显著。基于分析结果，本文提出了四点建议：关注绿色发展全局性、促进产业结构升级、加大技术投入、加强政府规制。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Yangtze River Economic Belt is an important strategic support for the development of national economy. Choosing a green development path is the only way to promote sustainable development. This paper establishes an evaluation index system based on production, living and ecology, and evaluates the green development level of 130 cities in the study area from 2010 to 2019 by using entropy weight method. Based on the global and local Moran ’I indices, the spatial correlation pattern of green development level at 2010, 2015and 2019 in the study area was calculated, and the influencing factors of green development level in the study area were analyzed by using spatial Dubin model. The following conclusions are drawn from the study: The first, from the perspective of time distribution, the trend of green development in the study area is N-type fluctuating growth trend; The Second, from the perspective of spatial distribution characteristics, the green development status of the study area is lower reaches > middle reaches > upper reaches.Within provinces and cities, the development trend in the east is stronger than that in the west, and the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta presents a circle layer structure. The third, from the perspective of spatial difference analysis, both intra-regional and inter-regional differences show a decreasing trend, and the overall green development difference of the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows a “Λ”-type fluctuation.The fourth from the perspective of spatial autocorrelation analysis, most of moran points are concentrated in the first and third quadrants(high-high aggregation, low-low aggregation), and the inter-regional aggregation effect gradually increases and spreads outward.The Fifth, the results of spatial Dubin model show that economic development, scientific and technological innovation and industrial structure have a positive impact on the green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, environmental regulation has a negative impact on the green development, and education investment and opening up have no significant impact on the green development. Based on the analysis results, this paper puts forward four suggestions: pay attention to the overall nature of green development, promote the upgrading of industrial structure, increase technological input and strengthen government regulation.更多还原