【摘要】 目的 基于地理信息系统分析2020年湖南省梅毒报告发病率的空间分布，构建空间回归模型探索梅毒报告发病率的影响因素，为湖南省梅毒精准化防控提供一定的理论依据。方法 以区县为研究单位，使用全局Moran’s I统计量衡量全局空间自相关，使用Getis-Ord G^*_i热点分析探测热点区域，基于拉格朗日乘数检验构建合适的空间回归模型。结果 2020年湖南省梅毒报告发病率呈正向空间自相关（Moran’s I=0.247,P<0.001）,热点区域主要位于湘东部长沙市和湘西北部怀化市、张家界市，冷点区域主要位于湘南部衡阳市、邵阳市。空间滞后模型纳入城镇化率（b=-0.274,P=0.007）、一般公共预算支出(b=1.055×10^-5,P=0.092)、丙肝报告发病率（b=0.397,P<0.001）、淋病报告发病率（b=1.104,P=0.003）、HIV/AIDS现患率（b=0.065,P=0.077）五项自变量（模型决定系数=0.397,赤池信息量准则=1 124.57,施瓦茨准则=1 144.64）。结论 2020年湖南省梅毒报告发病率具有地区聚集性，应综合考虑人口与社会经济发展、医疗卫生资源投入、性传播疾病感染情况对梅毒报告发病率的影响，制定精准化梅毒防控策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the spatial distribution of reported incidence rate of syphilis in Hunan Province in 2020 based on geographic information system（GIS）, to construct a spatial regression model for exploring the factors influencing reported incidence rate of syphilis, and to provide certain theoretical evidence for precision prevention and control of syphilis in Hunan Province. Methods Districts and counties were taken as the research units. The global Moran’s I coefficient was used to measure the global spatial autocorrelation. The Getis-Ord G^*_i was employed to detect the hot spot areas, and the appropriate spatial regression model was constructed based on Lagrange multiplier value. Results The reported incidence rate of syphilis in Hunan Province in 2020 showed a positive spatial autocorrelation（Moran’s I=0.247, P<0.001）. The most densely-distributed areas were mainly located in Changsha lying in the east of Hunan as well as Huaihua and Zhangjiajie lying in the northwest of Hunan. The cold spot areas were located in Hengyang and Shaoyang lying in the south of Hunan. The spatial lag model（R²=0.397, AIC=1,124.57, SC=1,144.64） was constructed, and the independent variables included urbanization rate（b=-0.274, P=0.007）, general public budget expenditure(b=1.055×10^-5, P=0.092), reported incidence rate of hepatitis C（b=0.397, P<0.001）, reported incidence rate of gonorrhea（b=1.104, P=0.003） and prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS（b=0.065, P=0.077）. Conclusion The reported incidence rate of syphilis in Hunan Province in 2020 possessed a regional clustering feature. It is necessary to comprehensively consider the effects of population and socio-economic development, medical and health resource input and sexually transmitted disease infection status on the reported incidence rate of syphilis and formulate precise prevention and control strategies for syphilis.更多还原