【摘要】 目的 本研究旨在了解青岛市儿童青少年超重和肥胖流行趋势，分析年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应对超重和肥胖率的影响。方法 本研究收集了2012—2021年青岛市学生健康体检数据。年百分比变化率和年平均百分比变化率通过Joinpoint回归分析模型计算。通过年龄—时期—队列模型估计年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应对超重肥胖率的影响。结果 2012—2021年儿童青少年年均超重率和肥胖率分别为16.46%、19.18%。Joinpoint回归分析显示，儿童青少年超重肥胖率整体呈上升趋势，年平均百分比变化率分别为1.4%、4.8%,且超重和肥胖率随着年龄增加上升速度越来越快。年龄—时期—队列模型的结果表明，儿童青少年超重率总体上随着年龄的增长而增加，肥胖率整体随着年龄增加而下降；时期效应显示超重和肥胖风险随着时期推移呈现波动上升趋势，超重风险RR值由2012年0.99上升到2021年1.14,肥胖风险RR值由2012年0.94上升到2021年1.50;儿童青少年超重和肥胖发生风险随着队列推移先快速增加，2009年出生队列超重风险(RR=1.02)和2013年出生队列肥胖风险(RR=1.24)达到峰值后缓慢下降。结论 2012—2021年青岛市儿童青少年超重和肥胖率总体呈上升趋势，年轻出生队列超重肥胖风险高，但是有缓慢下降趋势。应关注高风险人群管理，制定相应的公共卫生政策，以遏制儿童青少年超重肥胖不断增长的趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective The aim of this study is to investigate the epidemic trends in overweight and obesity amongst children and adolescents in Qingdao City,and to analyze the age,period and cohort effects on the overweight and obesity rates. Methods In this study,we collected the students’ physical examination data in Qingdao City from 2012 to 2021. The annual percentage change rate and average annual percentage change rate were calculated by using Joinpoint regression analysis. The impacts of age,period and cohort effects on the overweight and obesity rates were estimated by an age-period-cohort model. Results The average annual overweight and obesity rates in the children and adolescents from 2012 to 2021 were 16. 46% and 19. 18% respectively.Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the overweight and obesity rates in the children and adolescents showed overall upward trends,with the average annual percentage change rates of 1. 4% and 4. 8% respectively,moreover,the overweight and obesity rates increased faster and faster with the increasing age. The age-period-cohort model displayed that overall the children and adolescents’ overweight rate increased with the increasing age,while overall their obesity rate decreased with the increasing age.The period effect revealed that the risks of overweight and obesity showed fluctuating upward trends with time passing by. The RR value of overweight risk increased from 0.99 in 2012 to 1.14 in 2021,and the RR value of obesity risk increased from 0.94 in 2012to 1.50 in 2021. The cohort effect manifested that the risk of overweight and obesity in the children and adolescents firstly increased rapidly,but the risk of overweight (RR = 1.02) in the birth cohort in 2009 and the risk of obesity (RR = 1.24) in the birth cohort in 2013 decreased slowly after reaching the peaks. Conclusion From 2012 to 2021,the overweight and obesity rates in the children and adolescents in Qingdao City showed overall upward trends,and the risks of overweight and obesity in the young birth cohort were at high levels,but there were slowly declining trends. We should pay attention to the management of high-risk groups and formulate corresponding public health policies so as to curb the growing trends of overweight and obesity among the children and adolescents.更多还原