【摘要】 科学评价粮食主产区土地资源承载力，为粮食主产区土地资源可持续利用、保障国家粮食安全提供科学依据。选取粮食主产区的黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古、河北、河南、山东、江苏、安徽、江西、湖北、湖南和四川13个省(区)为研究对象，基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(driver-pressure-state-impact-response, DPSIR)模型构建土地资源承载力评价指标体系，并利用层次分析法和熵值法确定评价指标综合权重，分析2000-2020年粮食主产区土地资源承载力各子系统发展状况，评价土地资源承载力水平和等级。结果表明：2000-2020年粮食主产区土地资源承载力子系统中，除压力子系统水平呈先下降后上升态势外，驱动力、状态、影响和响应子系统水平均呈增长态势，年均增速依次为5.78%、2.71%、3.79%和5.25%。2000-2020年粮食主产区土地资源承载力平均水平呈增长态势，以2.76%的年均速度由2000年的0.224 7增长至2020年的0.387 3，增长72.36%。江西、黑龙江、湖北、河南、河北、四川、湖南和山东土地资源承载力水平年均增速超过粮食主产区平均水平。2000-2020年，黑龙江、辽宁、江西和湖北土地资源承载力水平持续提高，而安徽持续降低；吉林、内蒙古、山东和湖南则波动较大；河北、河南、江苏和四川基本长期不变。粮食主产区土地资源承载力分布存在较大差异。2020年，辽宁和河南土地资源处于弱承载力状态；山东和安徽土地资源处于低承载力状态；黑龙江、吉林和江西土地资源处于中承载力状态；内蒙古、河北、湖北和湖南土地资源处于高承载力状态；江苏和四川土地资源处于强承载力状态。社会经济发展和土地资源利用与保护政策是影响粮食主产区土地资源承载力的主要原因。更多还原

【Abstract】 The scientific evaluation of the land resource carrying capacity in major grain-producing areas provides a scientific basis for the sustainable use of land resources in major grain-producing areas and ensures national food security.Thirteen provinces(districts) of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui,Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan and Sichuan in the major grain-producing areas were selected as the research objects. Based on the driver-pressure-state-impact-response(DPSIR) model, an evaluation index system for land resource carrying capacity was constructed, and the analytic hierarchy process and entropy method was used to determine the comprehensive weight of the evaluation indexes. The development status of each subsystem of land resource carrying capacity in major grain-producing areas from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed, and the level and grade of land resource carrying capacity was evaluated. The results showed that in the subsystem of land resource carrying capacity of major grain-producing areas from 2000 to 2020,except the level of pressure subsystem showed a decreasing and then increasing trend, the levels of driver, state, impact,and response subsystems all showed a growing trend, with average annual growth rates of 5.78%, 2.71%, 3.79%, and5.25%, respectively. From 2000 to 2020, the average level of land resource carrying capacity in major grain-producing areas showed a growth trend, growing from 0.224 7 in 2000 to 0.387 3 in 2020 at an average annual rate of 2.76%, with an increase of 72.36%. The average annual growth rate of land resource carrying capacity level in Jiangxi, Heilongjiang,Hubei, Henan, Hebei, Sichuan, Hunan, and Shandong exceeded the average level of major grain-producing areas. The land resource carrying capacity level in Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jiangxi and Hubei increased from 2000 to 2020, while it decreased in Anhui, and fluctuated widely in Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Hunan, and remained basically unchanged for a long time in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu and Sichuan. There is an evident difference in the distribution of land resource carrying capacity of in major grain-producing areas. In 2020, the land resources of Liaoning and Henan were in a weak carrying capacity state, the land resources of Shandong and Anhui were in a low carrying capacity state, the land resources of Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Jiangxi were in a medium carrying capacity state, the land resources of Inner Mongolia,Hebei, Hubei, and Hunan were in a high carrying capacity state, and the land resources of Jiangsu and Sichuan were in a strong carrying capacity state. Socio-economic development and land resource utilization and protection policies are the main reasons affecting the land resource carrying capacity in major grain-producing areas.更多还原