【摘要】 基于2000—2018年的MODIS NDVI与气象数据,采用CA-Markov模型与相关分析方法对和田地区植被覆盖度的未来趋势及气候响应进行定量分析,主要结论如下:(1)近19年来,研究区无植被覆盖和中、高植被覆盖区的面积呈增加趋势,低植被覆盖区呈减少趋势。植被覆盖度发生轻度退化和轻度改善的区域占比分别为9.04%和9.47%;明显退化和明显改善的区域占比分别为1.22%和0.83%。(2)通过对研究区2024年的植被覆盖度进行预测分析,认为低植被覆盖和高植被覆盖区的面积增长趋势较为明显,而无植被覆盖和中植被覆盖区则表现为降低趋势。(3)2000—2018年间和田地区植被覆盖度整体水平较低,高植被覆盖区主要位于水热条件较好的平原绿洲以及昆仑山的山前洪积平原,中、低植被覆盖度主要分布在绿洲-荒漠过渡带区,无植被覆盖区主要集中于降水稀少、蒸发旺盛的塔克拉玛干沙漠和温度极低的昆仑山高山地带。在无人类活动区,植被覆盖度的动态变化主要受气候因素影响,而在人类活动频繁的平原绿洲区,植被覆盖度受人类活动和气候的双重作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the MODIS NDVI and meteorological data from 2000 to 2018, the CA-Markov model and correlation analysis method were used to quantitatively analyze the future trend and climate response of fractional vegetation coverage in Hotan Area. The main conclusions were as follows.(1) In recent 19 years, the area of non-vegetation coverage, medium,and high vegetation coverage increased, while the area of low vegetation coverage decreased. The proportion of slight degradation and slight improvement of FVC was 9.04% and 9.47%, respectively. The proportion of areas with obvious degradation and improvement was 1.22% and 0.83%, respectively.(2) Based on the prediction of fractional vegetation coverage in 2024, it was found that low vegetation coverage and high vegetation coverage would increase significantly, while the areas of non-vegetation coverage and medium vegetation coverage would decrease.(3) The overall vegetation coverage in Hotan Area was low from 2000 to 2018. The high vegetation coverage areas were mainly located in plain oases and alluvial plains in front of the Kunlun Mountains with better hydrothermal conditions, and the middle and low vegetation coverage areas were mainly distributed in the oasis-desert transition zone. The non-vegetated areas were mainly concentrated in the Taklimakan Desert, where there was little precipitation and strong evaporation, and the Kunlun Mountains, where the temperature was extremely low. In areas without human activities, the dynamic changes in vegetation coverage were mainly affected by climatic factors, while in plain oasis areas with frequent human activities, vegetation coverage was affected by the dual effects of human activities and climate.更多还原