【摘要】 建筑业减碳是助力我国实现碳达峰、碳中和目标的重要抓手。运用决策试行与评价实验室（DEMATEL）方法从直接碳排放、间接碳排放、运行碳排放和环境代价四个维度对云南省建筑业CO₂排放影响因素予以了系统分析。在此基础上采用系统动力学构建出云南省建筑业CO₂排放系统仿真模型，从而揭示预测出不同情境下云南省建筑业CO₂排放的预期峰值和时间。模拟结果表明：在高碳情景下，云南省建筑业将于2038年实现碳达峰，峰值为1 091.33百万吨；而在低碳情景和基准情景下，云南省建筑业将于2035年实现碳达峰，其峰值分别为455.91百万吨、942.04百万吨。最后，给出促进云南省建筑业低碳发展的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Carbon reduction in the construction industry is an important way to help China achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization.The system factors affecting the CO₂ emission of the construction industry were selected from the four aspects of direct carbon emission,indirect carbon emission,operational carbon emission and environmental cost,and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory （DEMATEL） method was used to identify the related factors of the system and their causal logic relationship.Based on the causal logic relationship revealed by DEMATEL method,a simulation model of CO₂ emission system for the construction industry in Yunnan Province was built based on the SD model,so as to reveal the expected peak value and time of CO₂ emission of the construction industry in Yunnan Province under different situations.The simulation results are shown as follows:in the high carbon scenario,the construction industry in Yunnan Province would achieve the carbon peak in 2038,with the peak value of 1 091.33 million tons.In low carbon scenario and baseline scenario,the construction industry in Yunnan Province would reach the carbon peak in 2035,with the peaks of 455.91 million tons and 942.04 million tons,respectively.Finally,relegating suggestions were given to promote the low-carbon development of the construction industry in Yunnan Province.更多还原