【摘要】 [目的]模拟喀斯特地区土地利用变化引起的生态系统服务价值变化，分析土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的响应关系，为区域可持续发展和生态安全保护提供科学依据。[方法]以生态环境脆弱的喀斯特地区贵州省为例，基于2000年、2010年及2020年3期土地利用数据，通过PLUS模型预测了不同情景下土地利用情况，并进一步从空间分布上分析了多情景下ESV的变化特征。[结果](1) 4种预设情景中，自然发展情景耕地面积与林地面积呈现大量减少的趋势，分别减少了101 676,208 481 hm~2;(2)在4种预设情景下，研究区2030年ESV耕地与生态双保护情景(488.694亿元)>生态保护情景(488.524亿元)>自然发展情景(486.435亿元)>耕地保护情景(479.087亿元)。(3)在4种预设情景下，研究区2020年及多情景模拟下单位面积ESV的空间分布特征较为相似。但自然发展情景下其ESV在空间分布上高值区域明显减少。[结论]ESV与土地利用变化息息相关，对未来土地利用进行合理规划是保证良好的生态环境质量最直接的原因，从可持续发展角度来看，耕地与生态保护情景下的经济发展才是土地利用的最佳模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] The aims of this study are to simulate the change of ecosystem service value caused by land use change in karst region, to analyze the response relationship of land use change to ecosystem service value, and to provide scientific basis for regional sustainable development and ecological security protection. [Methods] Guizhou Province, a karst region with fragile ecological environment, was taken as an example. The PLUS model was used to predict land use under different scenarios based on three periods of land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, and to further analyze the characteristics of the changes in ESV under multiple scenarios in terms of spatial distribution. [Results](1) Among the four preset scenarios, the cultivated land area and forestland area of the natural development scenario showed a large reduction trend, with a reduction of 101 676 hm~2 and 208 481 hm~2, respectively.(2) Under the four preset scenarios, the 2030 ESV followed the order: dual cropland and ecological protection scenario for the study area(48 869.4 million RMB)>ecological protection scenario(48 852.4 million RMB)>natural development scenario(48 643.5 million RMB)>cropland protection scenario(47 908.7 million RMB).(3) Under the four preset scenarios, the spatial distribution characteristics of ESV per unit area in the study area in 2020 and under multi-scenario simulation were relatively similar. However, the spatial distribution of its ESV under the natural development scenario significantly reduced in the area of high values. [Conclusion] ESV is closely related to land use change, and rational planning for future land use is the most direct reason for ensuring good ecological quality, and from the perspective of sustainable development, economic development under the scenario of arable land and ecological protection is the best mode of land use.更多还原