【摘要】 为拓展数字孪生技术在钱塘江河口的应用，提升河口相关管理部门管理水平，从钱塘江河口水利管理部门角度出发，梳理钱塘江河口数字孪生业务需求，并针对钱塘江河口冲淤变幅大、洪潮遭遇条件复杂、海塘预警单一等防洪潮问题，构建数字孪生钱塘江河口防洪潮“四预”应用场景，迭代优化强冲淤河口洪水演进预报及淹没风险研判和强潮河口风暴潮灾害实时研判评估2项关键技术，探索强潮河口防洪潮应用建设模式，为数字孪生钱塘江建设提供重要保障。业务应用于2023年强潮河口江道极端淤积条件下的洪水风险预报及水资源调度方案优化等工作中，预演结果有力支撑2023年河口防洪排涝研判及重要亚运会场馆安全运行，为相关管理部门风险决策及洪水调度提供决策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 To expand the application of digital twin technology in Qiantang River Estuary and enhance the management level of the estuary-related departments,this study starts from the perspective of Qiantang River Estuary water resources management departments,sorts out the business needs for a digital twin of Qiantang River Estuary,and aims at the flood tide problems such as large siltation changes,complex flood tide encountering conditions,and single sea dike warning in Qiantang River Estuary. It constructs digital twin application scenarios for “Four Pre”(prediction,prevention,pre-action,and pre-planning) of flood and tide prevention in Qiantang River Estuary. By iterating and optimizing two key technologies:flood progression forecast and inundation risk assessment for strong siltation estuaries,and real-time assessment of storm tide disasters for strong tide estuaries,this study explores the construction model for flood and tide prevention applications in strong tide estuaries,providing significant support for the construction of a digital twin Qiantang River. The technical application in the 2023 strong tide estuary under extreme siltation conditions for flood risk forecasting and water resource scheduling optimization,the pre-simulation results robustly support the 2023 estuary flood prevention and drainage research,and the safe operation of significant Asian Games venues,providing decision-making base for the related management departments’ risk decision-making and flood control scheduling.更多还原