【摘要】 针对制氢站系统复杂，易受到外部攻击，进而引发连锁故障及严重安全事故的问题，采用基于事件树的连锁故障推演方法，明确了制氢站设备连锁故障的后果和发生概率。在此基础上建立了考虑安全性、经济性和环保性的连锁故障风险评价指标体系。考虑到造成严重后果和影响的不精确性和不确定性，采用模糊隶属度函数进行评价指标的模糊化。最后建立了基于证据推理的风险评价模型，并应用到制氢站设备的风险评估中，实现了制氢站设备的风险评价和排序。实例分析表明，该方法可行有效，为下一步制定制氢站设备安全防范措施提供了依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The hydrogen production station system is complex and vulnerable to external attacks, causing cascading failures and serious safety accidents. The cascading failure deduction method based on event tree was adopted to determine the consequences and occurrence probability of cascading failures of hydrogen production station equipment.On this basis, a cascading fault risk evaluation index system considering safety, economy and environmental protection was established. Considering the randomness and uncertainty of serious consequences and impact, a fuzzy membership function was used to quantify the evaluation index. Finally, a risk assessment model based on evidential reasoning was established and applied to the risk evaluation of hydrogen production station equipment, to realize the risk assessment and ranking of hydrogen production station equipment. The example shows that the method is feasible and effective,which provides a support for the next step of making safety precautions for hydrogen production station equipment.更多还原