【摘要】 近年来北京市人口老龄化程度加重，人口老化速度明显加快。基于历次全国人口普查和北京统计年鉴数据，使用因素分解法和Preston模型对1990—2020年北京市人口老龄化的影响因素研究发现，人口出生和死亡对北京市人口老化速度的抑制影响较小，而以劳动年龄为主的流动人口对北京市常住人口老龄化起到极大程度的缓解作用。2000年以来巨大的流动人口存量对北京市人口老龄化程度具有较强的抑制作用。从人口流动的增量来看其对北京市人口老化速度的抑制作用在1990—2010年之间迅猛增加，而在2010年之后又呈现出急剧缩减的变化趋势，对总人口年龄结构的优化作用大幅减弱，是人口老化速度加快的主要原因。人口流动是影响北京市老龄化程度和速度的重要因素，要继续加强人口流动的动态监测调查，统筹规划各项人口政策，合理制定、及时调整人口调控政策，积极应对人口老龄化压力带来的挑战。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,the aging of the population in Beijing has intensified significantly,which means that the aging of the population age structure has accelerated.Based on the National Population Census and Beijing Statistical Yearbook data,the decomposition analysis and the Preston model are used to decompose the influencing factors of population aging in Beijing from 1990 to 2020.The result shows that birth and death have a relatively small inhibitory effect on the population aging rate,and the floating population mainly based on working age has a great alleviating effect on the aging of permanent residents in Beijing.The huge stock of mobile population since 2000 has had a strong inhibitory effect on the aging population in Beijing.From the perspective of population mobility increment,its inhibitory effect on the aging rate of Beijing’s population increased rapidly between 1990 and 2010 and then showed a sharp reduction trend after 2010.The optimizing influence of population mobility on the overall age structure has diminished significantly,primarily resulting in an accelerated aging trend of the population.The impact of population mobility on the degree and pace of aging in Beijing cannot be overlooked.It is necessary to continue to strengthen the dynamic monitoring and investigation of population mobility,coordinate and plan various population policies,reasonably formulate and adjust population control policies promptly,and actively respond to the challenges brought by the pressure of population aging.更多还原