【摘要】 利用1990—2020年4期遥感解译成果，运用面积趋势变化幅度、土地利用/覆被变化指标以及转移矩阵等研究方法，从时间和空间尺度上对伽师县绿洲面积及土地利用类型的演变过程进行分析，并从水资源条件及人类活动等因素着手，分析影响伽师县绿洲格局的主要驱动因素。结果表明：伽师县以2000年为分界点，之前人类活动影响弱，以天然绿洲为主；2000年以后人类活动影响增强，以人工绿洲为主。未来，在水资源由丰转平、转枯的概率增高，维持现有绿洲格局的风险较大，建议积极调整绿洲结构，应对水资源变化带来的风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the four remote sensing interpretation results from 1990 to 2020, this paper analyzes the evolution process of oasis area and land use type in Jiashi County from the perspective of temporal and spatial scales by using the study methods of area trend change amplitude, land use/cover change index and transfer matrix, and the main driving factors affecting the oasis pattern in Jiashi County are analyzed starting from factors such as water resources conditions and human activities. The results show that the year 2000 is the boundary point of Jiashi County, before which the influence of human activities is weak and natural oasis is dominant. After 2000, the influence of human activities increased, artificial oases is dominant. In the future, the probability of water resources changing from abundant to flat to dry is increasing, and the risk of maintaining the existing oasis pattern is greater. It is suggested to actively adjust the oasis structure to cope with the risk brought by the change of water resources.更多还原