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2011-2022年泉州市登革热流行态势和风险制图

The epidemic situation and risk mapping of dengue fever in Quanzhou from 2011 to 2022

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【作者】 潘欢欢; 周建丁; 李锋平; 刘娜文; 吴生根;

【Author】 PAN Huanhuan;ZHOU Jianding;LI Fengping;LIU Nawen;WU Shengen;Quanzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention;Quanzhou Meteorological Bureau;Public Health School, Fujian Medical University;Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control;

【机构】 泉州市疾病预防控制中心; 泉州市气象局; 福建医科大学公共卫生学院; 福建省疾病预防控制中心;

【摘要】 目的 分析2011-2022年泉州市登革热流行病学特征,探索发病病例的气象因素特征,绘制出泉州市登革热风险地图,为登革热的防控重点提供依据。方法 收集和分析2011-2022年中国疾病预防控制信息系统中网络报告的泉州市登革热确诊病例信息及泉州市的气象数据,采用SPSS 25.0软件整理分析,利用ArcGIS 10.7软件分析和绘制风险地图。结果 2011-2022年泉州市登革热累计报告病例460例,以男性为主(340例,占73.9%)。主要集中在6-10月,共报告病例数329例,占71.5%。病例以境外输入为主,共409例,占88.9%,其中多数来自东南亚地区,菲律宾(170例)、柬埔寨(178例)为主要输入地;境内输入病例15例,广东(11例)最多;本地病例36例,占7.8%;输入性风险较高的镇(乡/街道)为深沪镇(19例)、龙湖镇(17例)、凤城镇(16例)、青阳街道(15例)、金井镇(15例)、凤里街道(15例)。气象图像显示,泉州市2011-2022年年平均降水量西北部山区至东南沿海区域呈现逐级递减现象,与年平均湿度趋势大致相同。平均气象栅格图显示,年平均降水量>989.91 mm,年平均最高温度>36.66℃,年平均最低温度>2.95℃,年平均温度>21.10℃,年平均湿度>68.63%的区域是2011-2022年泉州市续发病例主要集中的地区,是发生登革热本地病例的风险区域。结论 深沪镇、龙湖镇、凤城镇、青阳街道、金井镇、凤里街道等地区输入性风险较高,东南沿海区域输入后续发风险高。

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of dengue fever in Quanzhou city from 2011 to 2022, explore the meteorological factors associated with the disease, and create a dengue fever risk map for Quanzhou city to provide guidance for the prevention and control of dengue fever. Methods The information of confirmed dengue fever cases in Quanzhou city reported through the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System from 2011 to 2022, as well as the meteorological data of Quanzhou city were collected and analyzed. The data was processed and analyzed using SPSS 25 software, and the risk map was created using ArcGIS 10.7 software. Results From 2011 to 2022, a total of 460 dengue fever cases were reported in Quanzhou city, mostly men(340 cases, accounting for 73.9%). Mainly concentrated from June to October, a total of 329 cases were reported, accounting for 71.5%. A total of 409 cases, accounting for 88.9%, were mainly imported from abroad. Most of them were from Southeast Asia, with the Philippines(170 cases) and Cambodia(178cases) as the main import places. There were 15 domestically imported cases, with Guangdong(11 cases) having the most cases. There were 36 local cases, accounting for 7.8%. The towns(townships/subdistricts) with higher risk of imported cases were Shenhu town(19 cases), Longhu town(17 cases), Fengcheng town(16 cases), Qingyang subdistrict(15cases), Jinjing town(15 cases) and Fengli street(15 cases). Meteorological images showed that the average annual precipitation in Quanzhou city from 2011 to 2022 had shown a gradual decrease from the northwest mountainous area to the southeastern coastal area, which was roughly the same as the trend of annual average humidity. The average meteorological raster map showed that the areas having annual average precipitation >989.91 mm, annual average maximum temperature >36.66 ℃, annual average minimum temperature >2.95 ℃, annual average temperature >21.10 ℃, and annual average humidity >68.63% were the main risk areas having dengue fever in Quanzhou city from 2011 to 2022. Conclusion Areas such as Shenzhen town, Longhu town, Fengcheng town, Qingyang street, Jinjing town and Fengli street had a high risk of importing dengue fever cases, while the southeastern coastal region had a high risk of subsequent outbreaks after importation of the cases.

【关键词】 登革热; 流性特征; GIS;
【Key words】 Dengue fever; Epidemiological features; GIS;
【基金】 福建泉州市科技重点项目(2019N056S)
  • 【文献出处】 热带医学杂志 ,Journal of Tropical Medicine , 编辑部邮箱 ,2024年06期
  • 【分类号】R512.8;R181.3
  • 【下载频次】50
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